Allegion plc (ALLE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 17.8x earnings — a 60% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — ALLE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 4.4. DCF fair value of $211 implies 43% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAllegion plc demonstrates robust fundamental economics characterized by a 15.4% ROIC, suggesting capital deployment efficiency that warrants scrutiny against the cost of equity to determine true value creation spread. The company's return on equity stands at an elevated 31.1%, driven primarily by strong operating leverage with a net margin of 15.8% rather than excessive asset turnover or financial leverage, which sits at a moderate 2.53x multiplier. This profitability profile is reinforced by high-quality signals: a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates solid financial health and operational stability, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.51 effectively rules out earnings manipulation risks. Revenue growth remains steady at 7.8% year-over-yo, supported by substantial gross margins of 45.2%, reflecting pricing power within the industrials sector.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence from historical and peer benchmarks; trading at a current P/E of 19.4x, Allegion is priced significantly below its sector average of 45.2x, implying the market may be underweighting its cash flow generation capabilities relative to peers. A discounted cash flow analysis projects a fair value of $215 with an implied upside of 47.9%, anchored by conservative assumptions regarding future free cash flows growing at approximately 7.7% annually over the next decade. This wide gap between current market pricing and DCF-derived intrinsic value suggests potential mispricing, though it also reflects specific macroeconomic or sector-specific concerns not captured in the model's growth inputs that are currently priced into the equity.
Risk assessment is further illuminated by recent insider activity showing $72,189 net buying over the last 90 days, a positive delta often interpreted as management confidence in near-term prospects despite broader market volatility. While no specific Fama-French alpha data was provided to gauge factor exposure, the combination of high margins and moderate leverage suggests resilience against interest rate shocks that typically compress leveraged industrial valuations. The convergence of strong quality metrics, attractive relative valuation, and supportive insider flows creates a compelling risk-reward profile for investors evaluating entry points based on fundamental reversion rather than momentum signals alone.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $260 | $188 | $144 |
| 3% | $306 | $211 | $157 |
| 4% | $374 | $242 | $174 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $129.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $211 (+43.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 21% above its 5-year average P/E of 16.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAllegion plc is currently trading at $130.43, a level that requires contextualization against its moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction and momentum strength. Without specific average values provided in the dataset, the precise relationship between the current price and these dynamic benchmarks remains undefined, preventing a definitive assessment of whether short-term or long-term trends are bullish or bearish at this exact moment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is absent from the available data points, which limits the ability to gauge immediate overbought or oversold conditions that often signal potential reversals in momentum. Consequently, while the stock resides within the Industrials sector, the technical picture lacks sufficient granularity regarding trend alignment and short-term velocity based solely on the current price figure. To fully evaluate the market structure, one would typically look for confirmation of whether $130.43 sits above key support levels like the 50-day or 200-day moving averages to validate an uptrend. In their absence, the position appears neutral regarding trend direction from a purely technical standpoint. Similarly, without RSI readings, it is impossible to discern if recent price action reflects strong buying pressure approaching exhaustion or merely steady accumulation away from extreme zones. Any conclusion about future movement must therefore rely on external data not present here, as the current snapshot offers only a static price point devoid of comparative trend metrics or momentum indicators necessary for a comprehensive technical analysis.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.5500 | +7.8% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.5100 | +6.3% |
| 2024-12-17 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-20 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.4800 | +6.7% |
| 2023-12-15 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-15 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.4500 | +9.8% |
| 2022-12-15 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or VBR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ALLE shares regardless of Allegion plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to ALLE through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Allegion plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Allegion plc (ALLE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ALLE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 19 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ALLE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 ALLE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Allegion plc (ALLE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.3% of the VBR (VBR). Across 19 tracked ETFs, approximately 9M shares (10.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ALLE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ALLE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Allegion plc over the past year sits near $163.76 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $129.85 sits 20.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ALLE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Allegion plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Allegion plc converts 68% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 2 | $135.49 | $270.98 |
| 2026-04-24 | 13,408 | $147.42 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-15 | 164 | $147.02 | $24,111.28 |
| 2026-04-14 | 3,006 | $147.21 | $442,513.26 |
| 2026-04-13 | 220 | $144.81 | $31,858.2 |
| 2026-04-08 | 5,173 | $139.40 | $721,116.2 |
| 2026-03-31 | 7 | $142.89 | $1,000.23 |
| 2026-03-27 | 44 | $145.79 | $6,414.76 |
| 2026-03-25 | 9 | $145.73 | $1,311.57 |
| 2026-03-13 | 102 | $145.85 | $14,876.7 |
| 2026-03-09 | 2,913 | $150.37 | $438,027.81 |
| 2026-02-25 | 1 | $158.86 | $158.86 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1 | $162.67 | $162.67 |
| 2026-02-10 | 3,173 | $177.94 | $564,603.62 |
| 2026-02-06 | 47 | $175.83 | $8,264.01 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2 | $166.94 | $333.88 |
| 2026-01-23 | 53 | $166.92 | $8,846.76 |
| 2026-01-21 | 35,173 | $163.01 | $5.7M |
| 2026-01-16 | 411 | $163.49 | $67,194.39 |
| 2026-01-08 | 953 | $159.02 | $151,546.06 |
| 2026-01-02 | 30 | $159.22 | $4,776.6 |
| 2025-12-30 | 8 | $161.35 | $1,290.8 |
| 2025-12-26 | 508 | $160.85 | $81,711.8 |
| 2025-12-18 | 346 | $160.71 | $55,605.66 |
| 2025-12-17 | 89 | $159.67 | $14,210.63 |
| 2025-12-15 | 325 | $160.83 | $52,269.75 |
| 2025-12-03 | 2,130 | $164.16 | $349,660.8 |
| 2025-11-21 | 613 | $159.45 | $97,742.85 |
| 2025-11-17 | 472 | $161.25 | $76,110 |
| 2025-11-14 | 472 | $164.52 | $77,653.44 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AOS | 0.642 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.614 | 0.619 | Moderate |
| URI | 0.590 | 0.420 | Moderate |
| GPC | 0.578 | 0.714 | Moderate |
| VMC | 0.570 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.546 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.531 | 0.585 | Moderate |
| CSL | 0.531 | 0.500 | Moderate |
| SGI | 0.525 | 0.569 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ALLE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.