American Homes 4 Rent (AMH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 26.1x earnings — a 45% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — AMH is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 1.6. DCF fair value of $47 implies 59% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of American Homes 4 Rent reveal a capital-intensive operator with strong profitability efficiency but constrained value creation relative to its cost of capital. While the DuPont decomposition highlights robust net margins at 24.5% and moderate leverage via an equity multiplier of 1.72x, these strengths are offset by low asset turnover of 0.14x, resulting in a total ROE of only 5.9%. More critically, the negative spread between return on invested capital (4.4%) and the weighted average cost of capital (8.1%), totaling -3.7%, indicates that current operations are destroying value rather than generating excess returns. Despite this operational drag, financial stability metrics appear resilient; a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests strong balance sheet health, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.71 effectively rules out earnings manipulation risks, even as an Altman Z-Score of 1.5 flags potential distress under stress scenarios.
Valuation dynamics present a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at 25.2x forward earnings, substantially below the sector average of 84.5x, suggesting the market is applying a steep discount likely due to its specific REIT profile or cyclical exposure rather than fundamental weakness alone. A discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $49, representing approximately 75% upside from current levels based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of just 2.8%. This low growth assumption underscores that the valuation is not driven by rapid expansion expectations but rather by mean reversion in asset prices or margin improvements within this mature real estate model.
Risk-adjusted performance data suggests the stock has underperformed relative to its size and profitability characteristics over recent periods, with a Fama-French alpha of -10.40% annually. The positive value factor tilt (HML: 0.251) aligns with its current depressed multiple, yet this is counterbalanced by neutral profitability momentum (RMW: 0.009). Recent insider activity shows $30,140 in net selling over the last 90 days, which may signal caution from those closest to the business operations given the negative ROIC-WACC spread and modest implied growth trajectory.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $65 | $39 | $26 |
| 3% | $86 | $47 | $30 |
| 4% | $127 | $60 | $36 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $32.08.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $47 (+59.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 4% below its 5-year average P/E of 26.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmerican Homes 4 Rent currently trades at $30.61 within the Real Estate sector, presenting a technical snapshot where price action must be weighed against inherent sector volatility and broader fundamental headwinds. The specific absence of recent drawdown metrics or moving average crossovers in the provided data necessitates caution when interpreting current momentum as purely structural rather than fragile; without visible support levels holding firm above this $30.61 mark, any upward movement could be susceptible to rapid correction if macroeconomic factors tighten further for housing finance entities. Real Estate exposure inherently ties performance to interest rate sensitivity and occupancy trends, meaning the price level observed today does not automatically validate long-term stability absent confirmation from volume profiles or trendline integrity that are currently undefined in this limited dataset. Consequently, the risk dynamic appears balanced between potential recovery opportunities and underlying fragility common in leveraged property markets during uncertain economic cycles. The current valuation point sits in a zone where technical resilience is unverified by the supplied indicators, suggesting that momentum may be more transient than foundational until corroborated by sustained trading patterns or fundamental catalysts such as refinancing relief or rent growth data. Stakeholders must recognize that without explicit evidence of stabilizing volatility or a clear breakout from consolidation ranges, the price action remains susceptible to external shocks typical for REITs facing regulatory or rate-related pressures. Ultimately, the interplay between the $30.61 price point and the invisible backdrop of sector-specific risks implies a need for heightened
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.3300 | +10.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.3000 | +15.4% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.2600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.2600 | +18.2% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYV or VNQ, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AMH shares regardless of American Homes 4 Rent's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to AMH through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in American Homes 4 Rent to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AMH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AMH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 AMH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.6% of the MDYV (MDYV) and 0.6% of the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ). Across 13 tracked ETFs, approximately 33M shares (9.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AMH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AMH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for American Homes 4 Rent over the past year sits near $31.62 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $32.08 trades 1.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AMH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does American Homes 4 Rent convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
American Homes 4 Rent converts 62% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 426 | $31.98 | $13,623.48 |
| 2026-05-01 | 398 | $31.84 | $12,672.32 |
| 2026-04-30 | 6,447 | $31.31 | $201,855.57 |
| 2026-04-27 | 2,096 | $30.55 | $64,032.8 |
| 2026-04-24 | 16,866 | $30.61 | $516,268.26 |
| 2026-04-08 | 33 | $29.28 | $966.24 |
| 2026-03-23 | 120,019 | $27.38 | $3.3M |
| 2026-03-20 | 121,348 | $28.14 | $3.4M |
| 2026-03-19 | 173 | $28.27 | $4,890.71 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,276 | $28.62 | $36,519.12 |
| 2026-02-19 | 661 | $31.36 | $20,728.96 |
| 2026-02-13 | 15,999 | $31.47 | $503,488.53 |
| 2026-02-09 | 25 | $30.84 | $771 |
| 2026-01-27 | 12,577 | $31.87 | $400,828.99 |
| 2026-01-26 | 3,914 | $31.99 | $125,208.86 |
| 2026-01-22 | 79 | $31.92 | $2,521.68 |
| 2026-01-16 | 1 | $31.72 | $31.72 |
| 2026-01-14 | 247,383 | $31.04 | $7.7M |
| 2026-01-12 | 2,225 | $31.02 | $69,019.5 |
| 2026-01-09 | 60 | $31.63 | $1,897.8 |
| 2025-12-30 | 90,963 | $32.08 | $2.9M |
| 2025-12-16 | 27,641 | $31.41 | $868,203.81 |
| 2025-12-03 | 212 | $31.84 | $6,750.08 |
| 2025-12-01 | 1 | $32.12 | $32.12 |
| 2025-10-30 | 98 | $31.87 | $3,123.26 |
| 2025-10-29 | 52 | $32.61 | $1,695.72 |
| 2025-10-28 | 48 | $33.42 | $1,604.16 |
| 2025-10-27 | 48 | $33.36 | $1,601.28 |
| 2025-10-06 | 1,687 | $32.64 | $55,063.68 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| INVH | 0.840 | 0.829 | High co-movement |
| MAA | 0.755 | 0.751 | High co-movement |
| UDR | 0.734 | 0.726 | High co-movement |
| CPT | 0.731 | 0.713 | High co-movement |
| EQR | 0.717 | 0.679 | High co-movement |
| ESS | 0.700 | 0.676 | High co-movement |
| VRTPX | 0.699 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| AVB | 0.684 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| ELS | 0.560 | 0.444 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AMH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.