AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 27.9x earnings — a 57% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — AZN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.9 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $133 implies 34% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this pharmaceutical entity demonstrate a robust quality profile, anchored by an ROIC-WACC spread of +7.1% that indicates significant value creation potential relative to the cost of capital. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 21.0% return on equity is primarily margin-driven at 17.4%, supported by moderate asset turnover and financial leverage; however, the Profitability Factor (RMW) score of -0.176 suggests recent deterioration in this specific dimension despite strong historical margins. Creditworthiness remains solid with an Altman Z-Score of 3.7, while a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals overall financial strength, though the weak profitability delta warrants monitoring for margin compression risks.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where the current P/E of 31.2x trades at a premium to historical norms and likely exceeds sector averages given the implied long-term free cash flow growth rate of only 4.8%. The DCF model, which incorporates these low-growth assumptions, yields a fair value estimate that implies merely 2.1% upside from current levels, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained high returns rather than aggressive expansion. This disconnect between the company's strong ROIC generation and its muted implied growth trajectory indicates that investors are currently demanding a premium for quality while simultaneously discounting future scalability.
Risk-reward dynamics appear skewed by conflicting factor exposures: the stock exhibits substantial Fama-French alpha of 10.16%, indicating superior risk-adjusted performance over time, yet it registers as neutral on value and weak on profitability factors. With no insider flow activity detected in the last ninety days, there is a lack of directional signaling from management regarding future catalysts or capital allocation shifts. The combination of high valuation multiples against stagnant implied growth creates an environment where downside protection relies heavily on margin durability rather than multiple expansion.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $165 | $111 | $79 |
| 3% | $217 | $133 | $89 |
| 4% | $320 | $166 | $103 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $177.45.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $133 (-34.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 42% above its 5-year average P/E of 21.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAstraZeneca PLC is currently trading at $181.58, presenting a specific snapshot within its technical framework that warrants observation regarding relative value positioning. Without access to the precise location of the Simple Moving Average (SMA) envelope boundaries or recent volatility metrics, it remains impossible to definitively characterize whether this price point represents an extreme deviation from historical norms or sits comfortably near the mean. The absence of data indicating how far the current valuation diverges from its moving average limits any immediate assessment of potential mean-reversion dynamics; consequently, one cannot determine if the stock is statistically overextended due for a pullback or undervalued relative to recent trends and poised for upward correction. In the context of healthcare sector analysis, this single data point serves merely as an anchor rather than a comprehensive signal. Determining whether $181.58 constitutes a zone where price discovery might reverse requires knowledge of the surrounding statistical distribution provided by the SMA bands. If future disclosures reveal that this level lies significantly outside the upper or lower envelope limits, it would theoretically suggest heightened probability for a return toward equilibrium levels typical of mean-reversion strategies. Conversely, if the current price resides near the center of the calculated range, the implication would be continued stability rather than an impending directional shift based on statistical extremes alone. Ultimately, the technical narrative here is incomplete without the envelope parameters that define normal trading ranges versus anomalous deviations. Investors must await further confirmation regarding the distance between $181.5
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | $2.1530 | +109.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $1.0300 | -51.0% |
| 2025-02-21 | $2.1000 | +110.0% |
| 2024-08-09 | $1.0000 | -49.2% |
| 2024-02-22 | $1.9700 | +111.8% |
| 2023-08-10 | $0.9300 | -52.8% |
| 2023-02-23 | $1.9700 | +111.8% |
| 2022-08-11 | $0.9300 | -52.8% |
| 2022-02-24 | $1.9700 | +118.9% |
| 2021-08-12 | $0.9000 | -52.6% |
| 2021-02-25 | $1.9000 | +111.1% |
| 2020-08-13 | $0.9000 | -52.6% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VGK or VSGX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AZN shares regardless of AstraZeneca PLC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to AZN through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AstraZeneca PLC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding NV (ASML) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with AZN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AZN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 33 AZN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the VGK (VGK) and 1.0% of the VSGX (VSGX). Across 8 tracked ETFs, approximately 47M shares (3.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AZN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AZN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for AstraZeneca PLC over the past year sits near $185.93 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $177.45 sits 4.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AZN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AstraZeneca PLC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AstraZeneca PLC converts 44% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 56% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 43,992 | $184.54 | $8.1M |
| 2026-05-12 | 2,193 | $181.86 | $398,818.98 |
| 2026-05-11 | 43 | $182.85 | $7,862.55 |
| 2026-05-07 | 135 | $184.92 | $24,964.2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 3,469 | $181.24 | $628,721.56 |
| 2026-05-04 | 444 | $184.74 | $82,024.56 |
| 2026-04-24 | 13 | $192.30 | $2,499.9 |
| 2026-04-20 | 800 | $204.80 | $163,840 |
| 2026-04-15 | 8,537 | $204.38 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-13 | 453 | $204.03 | $92,425.59 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3 | $204.99 | $614.97 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1 | $204.27 | $204.27 |
| 2026-04-06 | 50 | $203.49 | $10,174.5 |
| 2026-04-01 | 5,145 | $197.22 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-31 | 21,241 | $193.88 | $4.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 101 | $185.78 | $18,763.78 |
| 2026-03-24 | 3,969 | $184.07 | $730,573.83 |
| 2026-03-23 | 8 | $183.60 | $1,468.8 |
| 2026-03-04 | 1,409 | $201.76 | $284,279.84 |
| 2026-03-03 | 33 | $203.73 | $6,723.09 |
| 2026-03-02 | 2,442 | $208.45 | $509,034.9 |
| 2026-02-27 | 10 | $203.98 | $2,039.8 |
| 2026-02-26 | 59 | $205.79 | $12,141.61 |
| 2026-02-23 | 200 | $204.20 | $40,840 |
| 2026-02-20 | 3,902 | $208.62 | $814,035.24 |
| 2026-02-19 | 5,570 | $208.67 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-17 | 1 | $205.55 | $205.55 |
| 2026-02-13 | 50 | $204.52 | $10,226 |
| 2026-02-12 | 345 | $204.76 | $70,642.2 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1,996 | $193.40 | $386,026.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MRK | 0.589 | 0.423 | Moderate |
| PFE | 0.537 | 0.415 | Moderate |
| BMY | 0.521 | 0.342 | Moderate |
| CH0012032048 | 0.519 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| A | 0.486 | 0.364 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.472 | 0.274 | Moderate |
| AMGN | 0.468 | 0.345 | Moderate |
| ABBV | 0.465 | 0.275 | Moderate |
| TMO | 0.443 | 0.168 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AZN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.