Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.4x earnings — a 65% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — CCL is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 1.3. DCF fair value of $24 implies 12% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company's capital allocation efficiency presents a significant headwind, evidenced by an ROIC of 8.4% that trails the WACC of 13.4%, resulting in a negative spread of -4.9%. Despite this drag on value creation, total shareholder returns are supported by leverage rather than operational excellence; the DuPont decomposition reveals that while net margins remain robust at 10.4%, asset turnover is constrained at 0.52x, forcing equity multipliers to reach 4.21x to sustain a reported ROE of 22.5%. Creditworthiness metrics diverge sharply on this front: the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signals strong fundamental quality and financial stability, whereas an Altman Z-Score of 1.2 places the entity in the "gray zone" between safe operations and potential distress. This duality is further complicated by a Beneish M-Score of -2.68, which suggests low earnings manipulation risk despite the weak profitability factor (RMW) of -0.357 indicating deteriorating operational returns relative to peers.
Valuation metrics suggest the market has priced in modest growth expectations that may not align with intrinsic value calculations. Trading at a P/E multiple of 11.3x, which appears compressed relative to its implied long-term potential, the stock sits near parity with its DCF-derived fair value of $26 and negligible upside of 1.2%. However, this valuation assumes an aggressive ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 15.3%, a premise that seems inconsistent with the current negative ROIC-WACC spread and weak profitability factor. The presence of a positive Fama-French alpha of 18.56% indicates historical outperformance unexplained by standard risk factors, yet this anomaly coexists with a distinct value tilt (HML: 0.324) that may reflect market skepticism regarding future margin expansion or asset efficiency improvements.
Recent insider activity introduces additional caution to the investment thesis, as $12 million in net selling over the last ninety days suggests management is not accumulating shares despite the low valuation multiple. While the high Piotroski score and clean Beneish metrics provide a foundation of financial integrity, the combination of capital destruction (negative ROIC spread), weak profitability trends, and active insider offloading creates a risk-reward profile where downside protection relies heavily on mean reversion in asset turnover or margin expansion rather than current operational momentum.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.8% | 13.8% | 15.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $30 | $22 | $16 |
| 3% | $34 | $24 | $17 |
| 4% | $40 | $27 | $19 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $27.64.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $24 (-12.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 28% above its 5-year average P/E of 9.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCarnival Corporation & plc is currently trading at $24.64, a price point that warrants examination relative to its surrounding moving average envelope structure to assess potential mean-reversion dynamics. Although specific upper and lower band values are not provided in the immediate data set, the current pricing level of $24.64 serves as the anchor for evaluating whether the security is positioned near historical volatility extremes or within a neutral consolidation zone. In relative-value terms, if this price sits significantly distant from the central trend line while touching an outer boundary, it suggests a heightened probability that statistical forces might soon pull the stock back toward the mean, whereas proximity to the center implies continued momentum without immediate reversal signals. The absence of explicit band widths or standard deviation metrics prevents a definitive calculation of z-scores, yet the raw price figure offers context for sector comparison within the Consumer Cyclical space. Market participants observing this $24.64 level must consider how it aligns with recent session highs and lows to gauge if the asset is stretched beyond its typical range. If the current valuation represents a compression against broader technical envelopes, historical patterns often indicate that such deviations are temporary until equilibrium restores itself. Conversely, sustained trading away from the mean could signal emerging trend strength rather than impending correction, depending on volume confirmation not visible here. Ultimately, the technical narrative relies on interpreting $24.64 as either an overextended outlier or a stable pivot point within its moving average framework. Traders analyzing
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.1500 | -70.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-11-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-08-22 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-05-23 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-02-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2018-11-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2018-08-23 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2018-05-24 | $0.5000 | +11.1% |
| 2018-02-22 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2017-11-22 | $0.4500 | +12.5% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLY or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CCL shares regardless of Carnival Corporation & plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to CCL through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Carnival Corporation & plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CCL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CCL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CCL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.8% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and 0.7% of the VOT (VOT). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 171M shares (13.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CCL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CCL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Carnival Corporation & plc over the past year sits near $28.83 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $27.64 sits 4.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CCL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Carnival Corporation & plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Carnival Corporation & plc converts 38% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 62% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2,109 | $25.03 | $52,788.27 |
| 2026-05-13 | 51,545 | $24.85 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-12 | 105 | $25.44 | $2,671.2 |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,236,772 | $26.38 | $32.6M |
| 2026-05-08 | 22,095 | $27.00 | $596,565 |
| 2026-05-07 | 8,170 | $27.52 | $224,838.4 |
| 2026-05-06 | 18,567 | $25.77 | $478,471.59 |
| 2026-04-22 | 37,518 | $27.36 | $1.0M |
| 2026-04-20 | 32,274 | $29.22 | $943,046.28 |
| 2026-04-17 | 297 | $27.31 | $8,111.07 |
| 2026-04-15 | 9 | $28.69 | $258.21 |
| 2026-04-13 | 23,300 | $27.98 | $651,934 |
| 2026-04-10 | 935 | $27.85 | $26,039.75 |
| 2026-04-09 | 28,627 | $28.03 | $802,414.81 |
| 2026-04-08 | 979,604 | $25.20 | $24.7M |
| 2026-04-07 | 1 | $25.97 | $25.97 |
| 2026-04-06 | 25,696 | $25.64 | $658,845.44 |
| 2026-03-27 | 5,172 | $25.28 | $130,748.16 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,104 | $25.47 | $28,118.88 |
| 2026-03-23 | 9 | $24.12 | $217.08 |
| 2026-03-19 | 8,360 | $24.16 | $201,977.6 |
| 2026-03-18 | 1,305 | $25.09 | $32,742.45 |
| 2026-03-17 | 147,081 | $24.72 | $3.6M |
| 2026-03-09 | 156,749 | $25.79 | $4.0M |
| 2026-02-25 | 100 | $31.61 | $3,161 |
| 2026-02-23 | 4,200 | $31.99 | $134,358 |
| 2026-02-19 | 5,017 | $32.54 | $163,253.18 |
| 2026-02-18 | 13,079 | $32.68 | $427,421.72 |
| 2026-02-13 | 400 | $32.60 | $13,040 |
| 2026-02-09 | 5,060 | $33.99 | $171,989.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| RCL | 0.788 | 0.792 | High co-movement |
| HLT | 0.659 | 0.650 | Moderate |
| DAL | 0.640 | 0.640 | Moderate |
| MAR | 0.636 | 0.601 | Moderate |
| UAL | 0.626 | 0.635 | Moderate |
| AAL | 0.623 | 0.604 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.622 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| LUV | 0.610 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.606 | 0.536 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CCL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.