Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCVX trades at 31.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 34.8x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.4. DCF fair value of $82 implies 57% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this energy sector participant reveal a significant divergence between capital efficiency and profitability drivers. The company generates an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.8%, indicating that current returns on invested capital fail to cover the cost of financing, which typically signals value destruction unless offset by other factors. While DuPont analysis shows earnings per share are supported primarily by leverage (Equity Multiplier at 1.69x) rather than operational efficiency or margin expansion—evidenced by a modest asset turnover of 0.57x and net margins holding steady at 6.7% despite revenue contraction—the balance sheet remains robust with an Altman Z-Score of 3.5 and a low Beneish M-Score of -3.02 suggesting minimal earnings manipulation risk. The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 further supports reasonable financial stability, though the negative spread warrants scrutiny regarding long-term capital allocation efficacy.
Valuation metrics present a stark contrast to historical norms and peer benchmarks, with the current P/E ratio at 30.0x significantly exceeding the sector average of 24.0x. This premium pricing appears inconsistent with discounted cash flow modeling, which implies a fair value $75 lower than market prices, translating to an estimated -63.6% downside relative to intrinsic worth based on projected free cash flows growing at 10.1% annually over the next decade. The market is currently pricing in aggressive growth assumptions that may not align with the observed revenue decline of -4.6% YoY and the inability of operations to generate returns above the cost of capital, creating a potential disconnect between valuation multiples and underlying cash generation capabilities.
Risk factors are further illuminated by divergent factor tilts and recent insider activity. Although the stock exhibits positive exposure to value (HML at 0.770) and robust profitability (RMW at 0.148), generating an annual Fama-French alpha of 0.94%, these characteristics coexist with substantial net insider selling totaling over $206 million within the last ninety days. This combination suggests that while the security may offer specific factor-based returns, management's capital allocation decisions or internal confidence levels do not align with the current valuation premium, presenting a complex risk-reward profile for investors evaluating entry points based on fundamental deterioration versus factor exposure.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.1% | 8.1% | 10.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $109 | $70 | $50 |
| 3% | $142 | $82 | $56 |
| 4% | $206 | $101 | $64 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $187.55.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $82 (-57.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 14% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedChevron Corporation is currently trading at $196.12 within the energy sector, presenting a snapshot where institutional positioning may be influenced by broader market dynamics rather than isolated stock-specific catalysts. The absence of specific moving average crossover data or volume metrics in the provided dataset prevents a definitive assessment of whether larger players are aggressively accumulating shares near support levels or gradually reducing exposure as prices approach resistance zones. Without clear signals indicating a shift from selling to buying pressure, it remains uncertain if institutional capital is viewing this price point as an attractive entry into a potential upward trend or merely maintaining existing allocations amidst sector volatility. Institutional behavior often manifests through sustained volume spikes coinciding with price breaks above key technical thresholds, yet the current data lacks these confirmatory elements to suggest coordinated large-cap activity. The stock's position at $196.12 does not inherently indicate that major funds are repositioning for a significant rally or preparing to exit positions due to perceived overvaluation. Observers must await further confirmation through volume analysis and trend line interactions before concluding whether the current price action reflects strategic accumulation by sophisticated investors or neutral market participation where institutional sentiment remains ambiguous regarding future directional moves in the energy landscape.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $1.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | $1.7800 | +4.1% |
| 2025-11-18 | $1.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-19 | $1.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $1.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $1.7100 | +4.9% |
| 2024-11-18 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-19 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $1.6300 | +7.9% |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $1.5100 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or IYE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CVX shares regardless of Chevron Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $52.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to CVX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Chevron Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Chevron Corporation (CVX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CVX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 38 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CVX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CVX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Chevron Corporation (CVX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 16.6% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 15.4% of the IYE (IYE). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 287M shares (14.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CVX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CVX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Chevron Corporation over the past year sits near $150.72 (20% of 252-day volume). The current price of $187.55 trades 24.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (20% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CVX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Chevron Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Chevron Corporation converts 40% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 60% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 36 | $185.95 | $6,694.2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 237 | $192.64 | $45,655.68 |
| 2026-05-05 | 147 | $192.28 | $28,265.16 |
| 2026-05-04 | 5,788 | $190.63 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-01 | 11 | $193.31 | $2,126.41 |
| 2026-04-30 | 269 | $192.22 | $51,707.18 |
| 2026-04-29 | 165 | $188.36 | $31,079.4 |
| 2026-04-27 | 540 | $185.21 | $100,013.4 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,433 | $187.60 | $268,830.8 |
| 2026-04-23 | 1,596 | $186.32 | $297,366.72 |
| 2026-04-20 | 499 | $183.99 | $91,811.01 |
| 2026-04-16 | 470 | $184.91 | $86,907.7 |
| 2026-04-15 | 234 | $187.02 | $43,762.68 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,570 | $188.55 | $296,023.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | 100 | $198.86 | $19,886 |
| 2026-04-06 | 13,000 | $198.97 | $2.6M |
| 2026-04-02 | 55 | $197.41 | $10,857.55 |
| 2026-03-30 | 12,800 | $211.15 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-25 | 48 | $206.79 | $9,925.92 |
| 2026-03-23 | 4,760 | $201.73 | $960,234.8 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,438 | $201.44 | $491,110.72 |
| 2026-03-17 | 11,292 | $196.84 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-16 | 400 | $196.82 | $78,728 |
| 2026-03-12 | 7,154 | $191.79 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-11 | 76 | $186.29 | $14,158.04 |
| 2026-03-02 | 376 | $186.76 | $70,221.76 |
| 2026-02-23 | 87,851 | $183.93 | $16.2M |
| 2026-02-18 | 699 | $180.55 | $126,204.45 |
| 2026-02-17 | 70,342 | $183.74 | $12.9M |
| 2026-02-10 | 38 | $182.60 | $6,938.8 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| XOM | 0.828 | 0.816 | High co-movement |
| COP | 0.803 | 0.758 | High co-movement |
| EOG | 0.744 | 0.691 | High co-movement |
| DVN | 0.719 | 0.609 | High co-movement |
| FANG | 0.689 | 0.602 | Moderate |
| PSX | 0.685 | 0.690 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.683 | 0.606 | Moderate |
| OXY | 0.677 | 0.587 | Moderate |
| MUR | 0.642 | 0.503 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CVX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.