EQT Corporation (EQT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 10.4x earnings — a 70% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — EQT is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.1. DCF fair value of $205 implies 256% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a company generating substantial earnings through high net margins of 24.4% and robust revenue growth of 60%, yet capital efficiency remains constrained by an ROIC-WACC spread of -1.7%. This negative spread indicates that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital, despite a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggesting strong financial health and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.81 signaling minimal earnings manipulation risk. The DuPont decomposition highlights this structural tension: while asset turnover sits at only 0.20x and the profitability factor shows weakness, equity leverage of 1.53x artificially inflates the ROE to 7.4%, masking the underlying inefficiency where returns fail to cover the weighted average cost of capital of 8.5%.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between current pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at an 18.0x P/E, which appears reasonable relative to its growth profile, the stock commands a premium that conflicts with a DCF-implied fair value of $195, suggesting significant upside potential if long-term assumptions hold. However, this valuation hinges on aggressive growth expectations; the model assumes only 1.5% free cash flow growth over ten years while pricing in substantial expansion, creating a sensitive link between current multiples and future execution. The market appears to be betting heavily on revenue acceleration rather than margin durability or capital allocation efficiency, given that profitability factor alpha is negative at -0.277 despite the high net margins reported today.
Risk assessment introduces conflicting signals regarding future performance sustainability. While the Fama-French alpha of 8.78% and positive value tilt score of 0.789 suggest superior risk-adjusted returns relative to size, book, and profitability factors historically, recent insider activity shows $5.46 million in net selling over ninety days, raising questions about management's confidence at these levels. The Altman Z-Score of 2.3 places the firm in a gray zone regarding bankruptcy risk, further complicated by the persistent negative ROIC-WACC spread that has not yet been resolved despite impressive top-line expansion. Investors must weigh whether the current price adequately compensates for capital inefficiency and insider distribution against the strong fundamentals indicated by low manipulation scores and high profitability margins.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 60% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $269 | $175 | $127 |
| 3% | $346 | $205 | $142 |
| 4% | $490 | $250 | $163 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $54.68.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $205 (+256.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 39% above its 5-year average P/E of 12.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEQT Corporation is currently trading at $59.77, a price point that requires contextualization against its moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction and momentum strength. Without specific values for short-term or long-term average lines, it remains unclear whether the current valuation sits above or below these critical support levels, which would otherwise signal bullish continuation or potential correction phases. The absence of Relative Strength Index data further limits the ability to gauge immediate short-term velocity; typically, an RSI reading near overbought thresholds might suggest cooling momentum, while values approaching oversold conditions could indicate a buildup in buying pressure. In this specific snapshot, the technical picture relies heavily on unprovided comparative metrics rather than standalone price action alone. The energy sector backdrop adds another layer of complexity to interpreting these isolated figures, as broader market dynamics often influence individual stock trajectories regardless of internal moving average relationships. Observers must weigh the current $59.77 level against historical volatility and recent trading ranges to form a complete view of potential future movements. Since definitive trend status cannot be established without knowing if price action is sustaining above key averages or struggling below them, any conclusion regarding immediate momentum remains speculative based on incomplete data sets. The situation invites further analysis once the relationship between current pricing and its exponential or simple moving averages becomes clear, as that intersection usually dictates whether short-term forces are supportive of higher prices or exerting downward pressure.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | $0.1650 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.1650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.1650 | +4.4% |
| 2025-08-06 | $0.1580 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-07 | $0.1580 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-18 | $0.1580 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-06 | $0.1580 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-07 | $0.1580 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-07 | $0.1580 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-16 | $0.1580 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-07 | $0.1580 | +5.3% |
| 2023-08-08 | $0.1500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XOP or XLE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EQT shares regardless of EQT Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to EQT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in EQT Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If EQT Corporation (EQT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with EQT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 37 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EQT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 EQT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
EQT Corporation (EQT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.3% of the XOP (XOP) and 2.0% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). Across 39 tracked ETFs, approximately 123M shares (19.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest EQT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 39 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EQT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for EQT Corporation over the past year sits near $55.71 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $54.68 sits 1.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EQT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does EQT Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
EQT Corporation converts 47% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 53% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 7 | $57.36 | $401.52 |
| 2026-05-06 | 42,656 | $58.72 | $2.5M |
| 2026-05-01 | 5,417 | $60.08 | $325,453.36 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $56.71 | $340.26 |
| 2026-04-14 | 113 | $57.70 | $6,520.1 |
| 2026-04-13 | 305 | $58.68 | $17,897.4 |
| 2026-04-10 | 300 | $59.47 | $17,841 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2,801 | $60.18 | $168,564.18 |
| 2026-03-25 | 62 | $65.33 | $4,050.46 |
| 2026-03-23 | 25,935 | $64.67 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-16 | 372 | $64.37 | $23,945.64 |
| 2026-03-11 | 78 | $61.83 | $4,822.74 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,072 | $61.67 | $66,110.24 |
| 2026-03-05 | 1,072 | $61.31 | $65,724.32 |
| 2026-03-04 | 23 | $61.61 | $1,417.03 |
| 2026-03-02 | 597 | $61.42 | $36,667.74 |
| 2026-02-24 | 6,272 | $59.03 | $370,236.16 |
| 2026-02-23 | 10,168 | $60.50 | $615,164 |
| 2026-02-19 | 2,000 | $58.63 | $117,260 |
| 2026-02-17 | 125,048 | $58.70 | $7.3M |
| 2026-02-13 | 5,300 | $57.18 | $303,054 |
| 2026-02-09 | 2,500 | $56.79 | $141,975 |
| 2026-02-05 | 1,746 | $55.40 | $96,728.4 |
| 2026-01-30 | 100,081 | $56.33 | $5.6M |
| 2026-01-27 | 350 | $56.41 | $19,743.5 |
| 2026-01-26 | 500 | $55.52 | $27,760 |
| 2026-01-23 | 57,282 | $54.73 | $3.1M |
| 2026-01-22 | 66 | $54.83 | $3,618.78 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,969 | $51.48 | $101,364.12 |
| 2026-01-16 | 1,999 | $49.92 | $99,790.08 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EXE | 0.830 | 0.829 | High co-movement |
| CTRA | 0.530 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| KMI | 0.514 | 0.433 | Moderate |
| WMB | 0.481 | 0.384 | Moderate |
| LNG | 0.404 | 0.270 | Moderate |
| OKE | 0.377 | 0.356 | Moderate |
| TRGP | 0.369 | 0.385 | Moderate |
| AROC | 0.313 | 0.269 | Moderate |
| EOG | 0.306 | 0.390 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EQT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.