Fastenal Company (FAST)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFAST trades at 39.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 35.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $24 implies 48% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Fastenal Company demonstrate exceptional capital efficiency, characterized by a robust ROIC-WACC spread of 20.1% that signals high value creation relative to the cost of capital. This strong return profile is driven primarily by superior operating leverage and margin expansion rather than aggressive financial engineering; specifically, a net margin of 15.3% combined with an asset turnover ratio of 1.62x underpins its DuPont ROE of 31.9%, while the equity multiplier of 1.28x indicates moderate leverage usage consistent with industrial peers. Qualitative risk assessments further validate operational stability, as evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 33.1, suggesting low bankruptcy risk and strong financial health, whereas the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.44 points to minimal earnings manipulation concerns despite impressive revenue growth of 8.7% YoY.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a forward P/E of 42.5x versus a sector average of 32.1x, the stock commands a substantial premium that appears fully priced into future expectations rather than historical performance. A DCF analysis implies a fair value of $23, resulting in an implied downside of approximately -49.9% from current levels, which suggests the market is pricing in sustained free cash flow growth averaging 20.1% over the next decade—a trajectory that exceeds typical industrial sector capabilities and may be overly optimistic given recent valuation multiples.
Risk-reward dynamics reveal a complex picture where strong factor tilts are offset by active insider distribution. The stock exhibits positive exposure to profitability factors with an RMW score of 0.153, yet it carries only a slight value tilt (HML: 0.304) and generates a Fama-French alpha of 1.88% annually, indicating outperformance relative to its risk profile despite the high valuation multiple. However, this fundamental strength is counterbalanced by net insider selling totaling $2.45 million over the last 90 days, which introduces a behavioral signal that warrants caution when weighing the potential for continued premium pricing against management's private assessment of future prospects.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $29 | $21 | $17 |
| 3% | $34 | $24 | $18 |
| 4% | $41 | $27 | $20 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $44.73.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $24 (-48.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 19% above its 5-year average P/E of 38.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFastenal Company is currently trading at $43.57, a price point that requires contextualization against its surrounding Simple Moving Average envelope to assess potential mean-reversion dynamics. Without specific upper and lower band values provided in the data set, it is impossible to determine if the current valuation represents an extreme deviation or a consolidation phase relative to recent trend lines. The absence of explicit distance metrics from these averages prevents a definitive conclusion on whether the stock is statistically overextended or undervalued at this moment. In the Industrials sector, such pricing levels often signal a period where market participants are re-evaluating fundamental drivers versus short-term momentum. If historical patterns suggest that $43.57 typically aligns with the outer boundaries of volatility bands during similar economic conditions, it might hint at increased probability for price correction toward the mean. Conversely, if this level sits comfortably within the central channel, the implication would be continued adherence to the prevailing trend rather than an imminent reversal. Ultimately, interpreting the relative value here depends entirely on where $43.57 falls in relation to the calculated statistical limits of recent performance. Traders observing these figures must weigh whether the current proximity to envelope extremes suggests a natural pullback is due or if structural support maintains stability at this price. The data presented offers only the snapshot figure, leaving the strategic assessment of mean-reversion potential dependent on comparative analysis with missing technical parameters that define the full range of recent activity.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.2400 | +9.1% |
| 2025-10-28 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-29 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-25 | $0.2200 | +2.3% |
| 2025-01-31 | $0.2150 | +10.3% |
| 2024-10-25 | $0.1950 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-26 | $0.1950 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-24 | $0.1950 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-31 | $0.1950 | +2.6% |
| 2023-12-05 | $0.1900 | +8.6% |
| 2023-10-25 | $0.1750 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYM or SCHD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FAST shares regardless of Fastenal Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to FAST through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Fastenal Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Fastenal Company (FAST) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde PLC (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FAST. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 38 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FAST Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 FAST shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Fastenal Company (FAST) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.9% of the IYM (IYM) and 1.9% of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). Across 38 tracked ETFs, approximately 249M shares (21.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest FAST Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 38 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FAST Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Fastenal Company over the past year sits near $41.88 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $44.73 trades 6.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FAST Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Fastenal Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Fastenal Company converts 57% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 20.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 26 | $43.32 | $1,126.32 |
| 2026-04-23 | 24,026 | $44.81 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-17 | 76,671 | $44.72 | $3.4M |
| 2026-04-15 | 9 | $44.62 | $401.58 |
| 2026-04-14 | 9,294 | $45.80 | $425,665.2 |
| 2026-04-13 | 23,627 | $49.17 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-10 | 13,615 | $49.10 | $668,496.5 |
| 2026-03-30 | 4,292 | $44.95 | $192,925.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | 114 | $44.89 | $5,117.46 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,155 | $44.45 | $51,339.75 |
| 2026-03-20 | 65 | $44.49 | $2,891.85 |
| 2026-03-18 | 19 | $45.93 | $872.67 |
| 2026-03-16 | 96 | $45.46 | $4,364.16 |
| 2026-03-12 | 52 | $46.59 | $2,422.68 |
| 2026-03-10 | 4,073 | $46.80 | $190,616.4 |
| 2026-03-06 | 229 | $47.30 | $10,831.7 |
| 2026-03-02 | 20,948 | $46.04 | $964,445.92 |
| 2026-02-25 | 92 | $45.46 | $4,182.32 |
| 2026-02-23 | 4,352 | $46.22 | $201,149.44 |
| 2026-02-19 | 14,842 | $45.98 | $682,435.16 |
| 2026-02-17 | 184,236 | $46.41 | $8.6M |
| 2026-02-13 | 51,250 | $45.54 | $2.3M |
| 2026-02-06 | 62,288 | $47.33 | $2.9M |
| 2026-02-05 | 32,210 | $48.28 | $1.6M |
| 2026-01-28 | 79 | $43.95 | $3,472.05 |
| 2026-01-26 | 345,402 | $43.89 | $15.2M |
| 2026-01-22 | 21,001 | $44.61 | $936,854.61 |
| 2026-01-21 | 5,430 | $42.62 | $231,426.6 |
| 2026-01-20 | 10,790 | $43.74 | $471,954.6 |
| 2026-01-16 | 5,020 | $43.53 | $218,520.6 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GWW | 0.618 | 0.647 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.553 | 0.556 | Moderate |
| PCAR | 0.496 | 0.563 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.483 | 0.568 | Moderate |
| AOS | 0.483 | 0.493 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.479 | 0.503 | Moderate |
| ODFL | 0.465 | 0.559 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.456 | 0.369 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.451 | 0.468 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FAST to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.