F5, Inc. (FFIV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 31.5x earnings — a 52% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — FFIV is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 5.5 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $579 implies 94% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of F5, Inc. reveal a company with robust capital efficiency and high-quality earnings generation, underscored by an ROIC-WACC spread that supports its 19.3% DuPont-decomposed return on equity. This elevated ROE is primarily driven by exceptional net margins at 22.4%, amplified moderately by leverage (Equity Multiplier of 1.76x) rather than asset intensity, which remains low at 0.49x turnover. Financial integrity metrics further validate this quality profile; a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 5.5 indicate strong balance sheet stability and operational resilience, while the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.53 suggests earnings are unlikely to be materially overstated. Despite these strengths, the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers at -0.100, signaling a recent divergence in profitability relative to peers that warrants monitoring alongside the 9.7% revenue growth trajectory.
Valuation analysis presents a significant discrepancy between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E of 25.1x against a sector average of 56.8x implies the stock is priced for substantial mean reversion or distinct risk premiums not currently reflected in multiples, whereas the DCF model assigns a fair value of $508, representing an estimated 75.7% upside based on assumed long-term free cash flow growth of 6.8%. While the low multiple suggests limited near-term earnings expectations are priced in, it also highlights that the market may be underweighting the durability of margins or overestimating execution risks inherent to the cybersecurity and application delivery control space.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics introduce notable headwinds despite the attractive valuation spread. The annual Fama-French Alpha stands at -23.50%, indicating significant underperformance relative to a risk-free benchmark after adjusting for market, size, and value factors over time. This negative alpha is partially offset by a positive Value Factor (HML) of 0.245, suggesting the stock benefits from value-oriented strategies, but it coincides with a weak Profitability Factor score that drags overall factor exposure down. Compounding these technical signals, insider activity shows net selling totaling $6.8 million over the last ninety days, which typically reflects management caution or liquidity needs rather than strategic conviction in immediate upside potential.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $703 | $520 | $411 |
| 3% | $820 | $579 | $445 |
| 4% | $996 | $657 | $488 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $409.13.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $579 (+94.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 2% above its 5-year average P/E of 23.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedF5, Inc. is currently trading at $382.42 within the Technology sector, a position that invites analysis regarding its relationship to established moving average envelopes. Without specific envelope boundaries provided in the dataset, the absolute price level alone does not confirm whether the asset is experiencing an expansion phase or contracting toward a mean. If this valuation sits significantly below upper trend lines while remaining above lower support bands, it might suggest a potential zone for relative value accumulation where historical volatility patterns often favor a reversion to the average. Conversely, if the price hovers near the extremes of such a range, the setup could indicate heightened momentum rather than equilibrium. The technical landscape here is defined by the interplay between current market sentiment and statistical norms derived from past performance. A price point in this vicinity relative to long-term averages would typically signal that traders are gauging whether the stock has oversold or overbought characteristics based on its recent trajectory. Observers might note that deviations from these central tendencies frequently precede corrective movements, yet without knowing the specific width of the envelope or the volatility regime at play, definitive conclusions about immediate mean-reversion potential remain speculative. The data presents a snapshot where the current level must be weighed against historical norms to determine if the asset is structurally positioned for stabilization or continued directional pressure.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like HACK or XTL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FFIV shares regardless of F5, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to FFIV through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in F5, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If F5, Inc. (FFIV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Broadcom Inc (AVGO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FFIV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FFIV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 FFIV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
F5, Inc. (FFIV) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.4% of the Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) and 3.7% of the XTL (XTL). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 10M shares (17.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FFIV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FFIV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for F5, Inc. over the past year sits near $293.64 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $409.13 trades 39.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FFIV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does F5, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
F5, Inc. converts 103% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 404 | $357.40 | $144,389.6 |
| 2026-05-04 | 545 | $323.20 | $176,144 |
| 2026-04-30 | 84 | $328.15 | $27,564.6 |
| 2026-04-23 | 273 | $311.18 | $84,952.14 |
| 2026-04-20 | 117 | $310.87 | $36,371.79 |
| 2026-04-15 | 151 | $295.19 | $44,573.69 |
| 2026-04-14 | 149 | $298.07 | $44,412.43 |
| 2026-04-13 | 139 | $289.81 | $40,283.59 |
| 2026-04-10 | 324 | $294.59 | $95,447.16 |
| 2026-04-09 | 381 | $304.76 | $116,113.56 |
| 2026-03-26 | 100 | $297.86 | $29,786 |
| 2026-03-25 | 7,816 | $289.04 | $2.3M |
| 2026-03-24 | 40,310 | $289.75 | $11.7M |
| 2026-03-23 | 40,317 | $284.28 | $11.5M |
| 2026-03-17 | 20 | $283.73 | $5,674.6 |
| 2026-03-12 | 4,071 | $289.52 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-05 | 7,117 | $286.12 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-04 | 20 | $281.54 | $5,630.8 |
| 2026-02-23 | 117 | $278.39 | $32,571.63 |
| 2026-02-18 | 8,274 | $270.58 | $2.2M |
| 2026-02-12 | 75 | $282.67 | $21,200.25 |
| 2026-02-09 | 275 | $276.57 | $76,056.75 |
| 2026-02-04 | 68,256 | $274.63 | $18.7M |
| 2026-01-30 | 713 | $282.53 | $201,443.89 |
| 2026-01-29 | 20,523 | $292.30 | $6.0M |
| 2026-01-28 | 37,897 | $270.43 | $10.2M |
| 2026-01-27 | 1,343 | $267.45 | $359,185.35 |
| 2026-01-26 | 4 | $259.26 | $1,037.04 |
| 2026-01-21 | 34,314 | $259.70 | $8.9M |
| 2026-01-15 | 5 | $267.45 | $1,337.25 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BLK | 0.473 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| TCBI | 0.472 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| ATEN | 0.470 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| EWBC | 0.469 | 0.493 | Moderate |
| KKR | 0.469 | 0.469 | Moderate |
| ZION | 0.464 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| CBSH | 0.463 | 0.488 | Moderate |
| BPOP | 0.459 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.458 | 0.486 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FFIV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.