Halliburton Company (HAL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 21.5x earnings — a 38% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — HAL is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.6. DCF fair value of $54 implies 40% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Halliburton Company present a nuanced picture where value creation is tightly constrained by capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that Return on Equity (12.2%) is driven primarily by leverage rather than operational excellence, with an equity multiplier of 2.38x offsetting modest margins and turnover, the ROIC-WACC spread of merely +0.2% indicates limited ability to generate excess returns relative to cost of capital. Financial stability metrics offer conflicting signals; a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests weakening fundamentals, yet this is counterbalanced by a robust Beneish M-Score of -2.69 and an Altman Z-Score of 3.5, which collectively point toward low earnings manipulation risk and moderate solvency despite recent revenue contraction of -3.3%.
Valuation metrics suggest the market may be pricing in growth expectations that exceed current operational reality. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 25.4x, slightly above the sector average of 24.0x, while a DCF model implies significant upside potential to a fair value of $51 based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 7.9%. This discrepancy between current pricing and intrinsic valuation models creates a tension where investors are paying for future expansion that has not yet materialized in the face of declining top-line revenue, potentially compressing margins further if capital allocation does not improve to match these high-growth assumptions.
Risk-adjusted performance factors highlight specific characteristics within the broader factor investing framework. The stock exhibits strong alpha generation with an annual Fama-French Alpha of 8.26%, supported by a positive Value Factor tilt (HML: 1.044) and decent profitability momentum (RMW: 0.334). However, these attractive risk premiums are complicated by significant insider activity, characterized by $13.5 million in net selling over the last ninety days. This divergence between strong factor-based returns and substantial internal capital distribution warrants close monitoring of whether management views current share prices as fully reflective of underlying asset values or if further deleveraging is anticipated to support future growth initiatives.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $71 | $46 | $33 |
| 3% | $93 | $54 | $37 |
| 4% | $133 | $66 | $42 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $40.13.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $54 (+40.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 1% above its 5-year average P/E of 24.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHalliburton Company is currently trading at $41.96 within the energy sector, presenting a snapshot where institutional positioning can be inferred through specific technical configurations rather than direct price directives. The presence of Simple Moving Average crossovers often serves as a focal point for larger market participants who utilize these metrics to gauge momentum shifts and potential trend reversals. When such averages align or diverge, they frequently indicate that significant capital flows are reacting to underlying valuation changes, suggesting that established players may be adjusting their exposure based on medium-term price trajectories rather than short-term noise. Volume trends accompanying the current price action provide further insight into the conviction behind these moves. Elevated trading activity relative to historical averages often signals that institutional entities are actively accumulating or distributing shares, whereas subdued volume might suggest a period of consolidation where larger holders are waiting for clearer directional catalysts before committing additional resources. The interplay between the $41.96 price point and surrounding moving average bands could imply that market makers are testing support levels, potentially setting up future breakout scenarios if buying pressure intensifies or breakdown risks materialize without significant volume confirmation. Ultimately, this technical arrangement highlights a dynamic environment where institutional behavior is likely being calibrated against broader energy sector fundamentals and macroeconomic factors affecting oil prices. Observers should note that the alignment of price with these moving averages does not guarantee immediate direction but rather reflects the collective assessment of value by sophisticated market actors who are monitoring supply-demand imbalances and operational efficiency metrics closely.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-03 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-03 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-04 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-05 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-04 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-04 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-05 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-05 | $0.1700 | +6.3% |
| 2023-12-06 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-05 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-06 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or XLE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HAL shares regardless of Halliburton Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to HAL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Halliburton Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Halliburton Company (HAL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HAL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HAL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 HAL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Halliburton Company (HAL) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.1% of the XES (XES) and 1.9% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 165M shares (19.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HAL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HAL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Halliburton Company over the past year sits near $22.08 (19% of 252-day volume). The current price of $40.13 trades 81.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (19% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HAL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Halliburton Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Halliburton Company converts 51% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 801 | $41.02 | $32,857.02 |
| 2026-05-13 | 318,250 | $41.70 | $13.3M |
| 2026-05-08 | 13,171 | $39.12 | $515,249.52 |
| 2026-05-05 | 555 | $41.98 | $23,298.9 |
| 2026-05-04 | 694 | $41.66 | $28,912.04 |
| 2026-05-01 | 718 | $42.30 | $30,371.4 |
| 2026-04-27 | 6,744 | $40.36 | $272,187.84 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1 | $37.15 | $37.15 |
| 2026-04-16 | 55 | $37.54 | $2,064.7 |
| 2026-04-15 | 4,340 | $37.51 | $162,793.4 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,996 | $38.61 | $77,065.56 |
| 2026-04-09 | 4,306,180 | $37.80 | $162.8M |
| 2026-04-06 | 74 | $38.17 | $2,824.58 |
| 2026-04-02 | 2,859 | $38.00 | $108,642 |
| 2026-03-30 | 100 | $40.42 | $4,042 |
| 2026-03-25 | 84 | $38.11 | $3,201.24 |
| 2026-03-24 | 9,324 | $37.51 | $349,743.24 |
| 2026-03-23 | 465,517 | $36.53 | $17.0M |
| 2026-03-20 | 100 | $36.93 | $3,693 |
| 2026-03-17 | 166 | $34.16 | $5,670.56 |
| 2026-03-12 | 20 | $35.93 | $718.6 |
| 2026-03-11 | 51 | $35.34 | $1,802.34 |
| 2026-03-04 | 100 | $35.26 | $3,526 |
| 2026-03-03 | 180,397 | $35.97 | $6.5M |
| 2026-02-23 | 38,981 | $35.11 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-10 | 46,979 | $34.90 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-09 | 370 | $34.98 | $12,942.6 |
| 2026-02-03 | 12,290 | $32.83 | $403,480.7 |
| 2026-02-02 | 6,000 | $33.52 | $201,120 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2,000 | $33.95 | $67,900 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SLB | 0.784 | 0.722 | High co-movement |
| PTEN | 0.724 | 0.653 | High co-movement |
| NOV | 0.711 | 0.664 | High co-movement |
| WFRD | 0.689 | 0.587 | Moderate |
| COP | 0.661 | 0.555 | Moderate |
| FANG | 0.630 | 0.442 | Moderate |
| BKR | 0.625 | 0.608 | Moderate |
| HP | 0.622 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| XOM | 0.620 | 0.566 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HAL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.