MAS (MAS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.8. DCF fair value of $99 implies 54% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of MAS is exceptionally robust, evidenced by a 26.9% ROIC that suggests strong value creation potential relative to the cost of equity. However, the DuPont decomposition reveals an aggressive leverage structure; while net margins at 10.7% and asset turnover at 1.45x indicate healthy operational pricing power and efficiency, the equity multiplier soaring to 69.35x inflates ROE to a theoretical 1080%, masking underlying capital intensity risks. This high-leverage profile is corroborated by financial health metrics: a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 signals moderate fundamental strength with recent improvements in profitability or leverage ratios, yet the Beneish M-Score of -2.67 strongly indicates low earnings manipulation risk and transparent reporting practices.
Valuation currently sits at a 16.3x P/E multiple, which appears compressed relative to implied growth scenarios given the company's capacity for high returns on invested capital. A DCF analysis places fair value at $103 per share; if current market pricing diverges significantly from this level, it implies the stock may be undervalued or that the market is discounting future cash flows due to the extreme leverage exposure. The disconnect between strong margin retention and negative revenue growth of -3.4% YoY suggests a cyclical downturn or strategic contraction rather than operational failure, potentially creating an opportunity if the high ROIC persists through the recovery phase.
Risk assessment highlights significant insider activity, with $5,117,080 in net selling over the last 90 days, which often precedes further downside or indicates internal confidence issues despite strong balance sheet metrics. While the low Beneish score mitigates fraud concerns and the Piotroski score reflects solid fundamentals, the combination of extreme leverage (69.35x) and negative top-line growth warrants caution regarding volatility and interest rate sensitivity. Investors must weigh whether the current valuation gap to DCF fair value compensates sufficiently for these structural risks before assuming a reversion to mean in revenue performance.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $120 | $89 | $69 |
| 3% | $138 | $99 | $75 |
| 4% | $163 | $111 | $83 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $69.00.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $99 (+53.6%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of $62.97 for MAS sits within a specific technical context that requires observation rather than immediate action. Without explicit moving average data provided in the input, it is impossible to definitively state whether the asset is trading above or below its short-term or long-term averages; however, the precise level suggests the market is currently consolidating around this valuation point. The absence of RSI figures prevents any assessment of short-term momentum strength or potential overbought and oversold conditions at this exact moment. In an environment where price sits exactly at $62.97, traders often watch for confirmation from volume spikes or a break in key support levels to determine the next directional bias. If future data reveals that prices consistently remain above established moving averages while RSI values hover near upper thresholds, it would historically indicate sustained upward pressure. Conversely, a failure to maintain this level could signal weakening momentum. The current snapshot offers only a static price point, leaving the interpretation of trend direction and immediate momentum entirely dependent on subsequent market movements and missing comparative indicators that are essential for forming a complete technical picture.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.3200 | +3.2% |
| 2025-11-07 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.3100 | +6.9% |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.2900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-02 | $0.2900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.2900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-21 | $0.2900 | +1.8% |
| 2023-11-09 | $0.2850 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-10 | $0.2850 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or MOAT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MAS shares regardless of MAS's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to MAS through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in MAS to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If MAS (MAS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies MODINE MANUFACTURING CO (MOD) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MAS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MAS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 MAS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
MAS (MAS) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the XHB (XHB) and 1.3% of the MOAT (MOAT). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 30M shares (14.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MAS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MAS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for MAS over the past year sits near $63.76 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $69.00 trades 8.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MAS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does MAS convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
MAS converts 63% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 15.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 516 | $75.40 | $38,906.4 |
| 2026-04-23 | 13,109 | $73.96 | $969,541.64 |
| 2026-04-22 | 9,761 | $66.76 | $651,644.36 |
| 2026-04-21 | 16,296 | $66.68 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $64.91 | $194.73 |
| 2026-03-26 | 14,296 | $61.52 | $879,489.92 |
| 2026-03-25 | 197 | $60.37 | $11,892.89 |
| 2026-03-24 | 713 | $60.08 | $42,837.04 |
| 2026-03-23 | 3,898 | $58.84 | $229,358.32 |
| 2026-03-19 | 14,934 | $59.92 | $894,845.28 |
| 2026-03-17 | 74 | $62.10 | $4,595.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 21 | $69.80 | $1,465.8 |
| 2026-02-17 | 127 | $76.19 | $9,676.13 |
| 2026-02-03 | 319 | $66.57 | $21,235.83 |
| 2026-01-07 | 57 | $66.03 | $3,763.71 |
| 2025-12-24 | 916 | $64.07 | $58,688.12 |
| 2025-11-28 | 1 | $64.42 | $64.42 |
| 2025-11-24 | 94 | $62.24 | $5,850.56 |
| 2025-11-07 | 160 | $62.10 | $9,936 |
| 2025-10-29 | 73 | $68.43 | $4,995.39 |
| 2025-10-21 | 194 | $68.71 | $13,329.74 |
| 2025-10-20 | 6 | $67.87 | $407.22 |
| 2025-10-14 | 4,268 | $65.99 | $281,645.32 |
| 2025-10-03 | 375 | $71.00 | $26,625 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SWK | 0.796 | 0.739 | High co-movement |
| ITW | 0.743 | 0.719 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.732 | 0.718 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.728 | 0.726 | High co-movement |
| TOL | 0.726 | 0.739 | High co-movement |
| LOW | 0.720 | 0.693 | High co-movement |
| PPG | 0.717 | 0.721 | High co-movement |
| KBH | 0.709 | 0.673 | High co-movement |
| OC | 0.706 | 0.694 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MAS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.