McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 7.8x earnings — a 76% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — MKC is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.3. DCF fair value of $120 implies 122% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of McCormick & Company reflect a capital-efficient operator with robust profitability underpinned by strong margins and moderate leverage. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 13.7% ROE is primarily driven by an elevated net margin of 11.5%, supported by a conservative equity multiplier of 2.29x rather than aggressive debt usage or exceptional asset turnover. While the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates solid financial health and the Beneish M-Score of -2.45 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places the company in a moderate-risk zone relative to bankruptcy thresholds. Crucially, the ROIC-WACC spread narrows to just +0.9%, signaling that while returns exceed the cost of capital, the economic moat may be thinner than typical high-growth defensives.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at an 8.0x P/E ratio significantly below the sector average of 34.4x, the stock appears deeply discounted relative to peers in the Consumer Defensive space. This compression aligns with a DCF fair value estimate implying substantial upside potential; however, this premium is contingent on long-term free cash flow growing at an implied rate of only 3.3% over ten years, which tempers expectations for explosive expansion. The market appears to be pricing in stagnation rather than the robust profitability factor score suggests, creating a scenario where current multiples may not fully reflect underlying operational strength unless growth assumptions are revised upward.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators highlight specific alpha generation challenges despite value characteristics. The Fama-French annualized alpha of -23.38% indicates that recent returns have underperformed the multifactor model's expectations, likely due to the stock's heavy exposure to profitability factors which may be overvalued in the current regime. Conversely, a positive Value Factor (HML) score of 0.162 confirms the market is correctly identifying this as a value tilt play with insider flows remaining neutral over the past ninety days. The interplay between deep valuation discounts and negative alpha suggests that while the risk/reward profile offers attractive entry points for contrarian investors, historical factor performance warrants caution regarding future momentum divergence.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $159 | $102 | $73 |
| 3% | $205 | $120 | $82 |
| 4% | $292 | $147 | $94 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $46.15.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $120 (+122.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 60% below its 5-year average P/E of 21.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMcCormick & Company, Incorporated is currently trading at $53.71 within the Consumer Defensive sector. The provided dataset lacks specific moving average values or Relative Strength Index readings required to determine precise momentum direction or trend positioning relative to these key technical benchmarks. Without knowing whether the current price sits above or below its short-term and long-term averages, it remains impossible to ascertain if the asset is in a confirmed uptrend, downtrend, or consolidation phase based solely on this information. Similarly, absent an RSI figure, there is no data available to evaluate short-term momentum strength or potential overbought and oversold conditions that often signal impending reversals. The absence of these critical indicators means the technical narrative regarding immediate price acceleration or deceleration cannot be fully constructed from the supplied figures alone. While the stock operates in a defensive sector, which historically offers stability during market volatility, the specific mechanical signals needed to describe its current trajectory are missing. Any assessment of whether the asset is gaining traction or losing steam relies on external data points regarding average price levels and oscillator values that were not included in this summary. Consequently, observers must look beyond the single price point to understand the broader context of trend alignment and momentum shifts for this security.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-29 | $0.4800 | +6.7% |
| 2025-10-14 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-07 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-07 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-30 | $0.4500 | +7.1% |
| 2024-10-07 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-08 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-05 | $0.4200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.4200 | +7.7% |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-07 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like NOBL or XLP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MKC shares regardless of McCormick & Company, Incorporated's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to MKC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in McCormick & Company, Incorporated to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MKC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MKC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 MKC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and 0.8% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 47M shares (18.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MKC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MKC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for McCormick & Company, Incorporated over the past year sits near $67.88 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $46.15 sits 32.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MKC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does McCormick & Company, Incorporated convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
McCormick & Company, Incorporated converts 55% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.3% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | 84,389 | $51.14 | $4.3M |
| 2026-04-27 | 203 | $51.53 | $10,460.59 |
| 2026-04-14 | 457 | $54.11 | $24,728.27 |
| 2026-04-13 | 80,060 | $53.71 | $4.3M |
| 2026-04-06 | 66,750 | $48.85 | $3.3M |
| 2026-04-02 | 15,471 | $48.38 | $748,486.98 |
| 2026-03-31 | 8,612 | $53.72 | $462,636.64 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,287 | $51.58 | $66,383.46 |
| 2026-03-26 | 189 | $52.78 | $9,975.42 |
| 2026-03-25 | 26 | $52.11 | $1,354.86 |
| 2026-03-23 | 3,948 | $53.23 | $210,152.04 |
| 2026-03-13 | 4,904 | $57.32 | $281,097.28 |
| 2026-03-11 | 274 | $63.39 | $17,368.86 |
| 2026-03-02 | 128,667 | $71.04 | $9.1M |
| 2026-02-19 | 4,858 | $70.02 | $340,157.16 |
| 2026-02-13 | 521 | $71.65 | $37,329.65 |
| 2026-02-12 | 92 | $70.53 | $6,488.76 |
| 2026-02-10 | 46 | $67.83 | $3,120.18 |
| 2026-02-09 | 10,370 | $67.42 | $699,145.4 |
| 2026-02-06 | 608 | $66.98 | $40,723.84 |
| 2026-02-05 | 57,047 | $66.58 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-02 | 71 | $61.83 | $4,389.93 |
| 2026-01-29 | 774 | $61.86 | $47,879.64 |
| 2026-01-20 | 430 | $67.04 | $28,827.2 |
| 2026-01-14 | 1,268 | $67.42 | $85,488.56 |
| 2026-01-13 | 412 | $66.84 | $27,538.08 |
| 2026-01-12 | 401 | $67.72 | $27,155.72 |
| 2026-01-09 | 451 | $67.13 | $30,275.63 |
| 2026-01-08 | 1,158 | $65.37 | $75,698.46 |
| 2026-01-05 | 63 | $67.28 | $4,238.64 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CAG | 0.552 | 0.537 | Moderate |
| GIS | 0.513 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| KHC | 0.486 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| CPB | 0.477 | 0.459 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.476 | 0.504 | Moderate |
| TAP | 0.472 | 0.500 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.464 | 0.511 | Moderate |
| LEN | 0.447 | 0.391 | Moderate |
| HRL | 0.444 | 0.402 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MKC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.