Real Estate

Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI)

$121.26
+0.76%
$15.8B
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
0.81
Beta
3.43%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 1.8 Gray ZoneBeneish M -2.30 CleanROIC−WACC -7.9%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.8.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

Sun Communities exhibits a stark dichotomy between its capital efficiency and earnings generation, driven primarily by extreme leverage rather than operational intensity. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that a 60.3% net margin and robust equity multiplier of 1.77x are propelling an ROE of 19.2%, this return is not underpinned by strong capital deployment; the low asset turnover of 0.18x indicates slow revenue generation relative to assets, resulting in a negligible ROIC-WACC spread at just 1.1%. This structural weakness suggests that shareholder value creation is fragile and heavily dependent on financial engineering rather than organic growth potential, despite the company maintaining solid fundamental quality signals with a high Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.30 indicating minimal earnings manipulation risk.

Valuation metrics present a significant premium that appears disconnected from current operational performance, as the stock trades at an average P/E multiple far exceeding the sector mean of 87.1x while revenue growth remains stagnant at merely 0.8% year-over-year. This disconnect implies the market is pricing in substantial future expansion or assuming persistent margin durability that historical data does not yet support; without a credible path to higher asset turnover, such elevated multiples carry inherent downside risk if earnings fail to accelerate commensurately with valuations. The negative Fama-French alpha of -6.04% further highlights underperformance relative to the factor model's expectations for this specific equity profile.

Risk factors are amplified by divergent factor exposures and recent insider activity, creating a complex reward-risk dynamic. Although the stock displays a value tilt with an HML score of 0.340, it simultaneously suffers from weak profitability signals reflected in a negative RMW factor loading of -0.160. Compounding these fundamental headwinds is notable insider selling flow totaling $1,908,078 over the last ninety days, which often precedes or accompanies periods of valuation compression. Investors must weigh whether current pricing adequately compensates for the combination of low capital efficiency, stagnant top-line growth, and negative factor performance against the company's otherwise clean governance metrics.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
1.8
Altman Z-Score
Grey Zone — between 1.8 and 3.0 thresholds. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.30
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

52.3%
Gross Margin
60.3%
Net Margin
1.1%
ROIC
9.0%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -7.9%— Negative spread.
+0.8%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+1429.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

60.3%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.18x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.77x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
19.3%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

0.77x
Debt / Equity
1.88x
Current Ratio
0.8x
Interest Coverage
5.3x
Net Debt / EBITDA
680.3M
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$2M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
2
Sale Transactions
2026-03-12LOFTUS BRIAN P.Grant$699,975
2026-03-12FARRUGIA MARCGrant$39,960
2026-03-05LEWIS CLUNET RSold 2/8 qtrsSale$952,518
2026-02-27LEWIS CLUNET RSold 2/8 qtrsSale$955,560
2026-02-05BAIVIER MEGHAN GGrant$199,991

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✗ Miss
Est: $0.08
Act: $0.02
-74.3%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.67
Act: $0.82
+21.7%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.15
Act: $1.74
+51.7%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.42
Act: $1.12
+168.3%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$1.1200
Latest Dividend
$8.06
2025 Total
+114.4%
YoY Growth
9 yrs
Consecutive Increases
Annual Dividends per Share
$1.30
2016
$2.68
2017
$2.84
2018
$3.00
2019
$3.16
2020
$3.32
2021
$3.52
2022
$3.72
2023
$3.76
2024
$8.06
2025
$1.12
2026
DateAmountChange
2026-03-31$1.1200+7.7%
2025-12-31$1.04000.0%
2025-09-30$1.04000.0%
2025-06-30$1.0400-74.0%
2025-05-14$4.0000+325.5%
2025-03-31$0.94000.0%
2024-12-31$0.94000.0%
2024-09-30$0.94000.0%
2024-06-28$0.94000.0%
2024-03-27$0.9400+1.1%
2023-12-28$0.93000.0%
2023-09-28$0.93000.0%

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

24.8%
Annual Volatility
0.46
Sharpe (1Y)
-0.03
Sharpe (3Y)
-26.5%
Max Drawdown (3Y)
-48.7%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.

0.45
Market β
Mkt-RF
+0.279
Size (SMB)
Small-cap tilt
+0.340
Value (HML)
Value tilt
-0.160
Profit (RMW)
Weak
+0.134
Invest (CMA)
Conservative
Alpha (annual): -6.04%
R²: 16.4%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Fundamentals

43.8
Forward P/E
9.42
PEG Ratio
2.26
Price/Book
817601
Avg Volume
$137.85
52W High
$115.53
52W Low
26%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$1.7B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding SUI
0.07%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$2.6T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like VNQ or VBK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SUI shares regardless of Sun Communities, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to SUI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in Sun Communities, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

SUI Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
SUIEpicenterVTIETFVBETFVXFETFVRTPXUnknownWELLLow RiskPLDMed RiskEQIXMed RiskAMTHigh Risk
SUI Price Drop (%)0

If Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SUI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 14 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

SUI Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 SUI shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
SUI
Total Shares
123M
ETF Lock-Up
13.7%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
13.7%Locked Float

Sun Communities, Inc. (SUI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.8% of the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ) and 0.5% of the VBK (VBK). Across 14 tracked ETFs, approximately 17M shares (13.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.

Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

SUI Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
SUI
PRICE
$121.26
FLOOR (POC)
$123.94
STRENGTH
High
$114$115$117$118$119$120$1229%$121.26$12315%$124POC 16%$12513%$12612%$1288%$129$130$131$132$134$135$136$137
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for Sun Communities, Inc. over the past year sits near $123.94 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $121.26 sits 2.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-124$125.79$503.16
2026-05-112,093$125.94$263,592.42
2026-05-06412$125.27$51,611.24
2026-05-0525$124.77$3,119.25
2026-05-0121$127.84$2,684.64
2026-04-295,648$128.30$724,638.4
2026-04-281,200$127.64$153,168
2026-04-141,012$129.52$131,074.24
2026-04-097,684$128.62$988,316.08
2026-04-02113$127.38$14,393.94
2026-03-2632,008$127.64$4.1M
2026-03-23100$130.44$13,044
2026-03-1717$134.95$2,294.15
2026-03-127$136.31$954.17
2026-03-10279$135.44$37,787.76
2026-03-06823$136.69$112,495.87
2026-03-0350$137.18$6,859
2026-02-2010,053$129.28$1.3M
2026-02-1335$128.89$4,511.15
2026-02-0992$125.69$11,563.48
2026-02-0662$123.68$7,668.16
2026-01-28686$127.04$87,149.44
2026-01-1551$126.64$6,458.64
2026-01-07668$122.85$82,063.8
2025-12-2634$124.45$4,231.3
2025-12-17598$123.23$73,691.54
2025-12-1620$123.89$2,477.8
2025-12-1539$122.20$4,765.8
2025-11-24300$128.23$38,469
2025-11-20635$125.52$79,705.2

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
ELS0.6770.614Moderate
VRTPX0.6230.601Moderate
UDR0.5280.503Moderate
EQR0.5140.546Moderate
ESS0.5120.487Moderate
CPT0.5040.513Moderate
INVH0.5000.451Moderate
MAA0.4940.580Moderate
REG0.4650.475Moderate

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare SUI to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.