Calix, Inc. (CALX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCALX trades at 81.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 10.5. DCF fair value of $38 implies 21% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for Calix, Inc. presents a significant structural challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -12.3%, indicating that current operations are actively destroying shareholder value despite robust top-line momentum. This fundamental disconnect is further illuminated by the DuPont decomposition: while gross margins remain healthy at 56.8%, they fail to translate into operating leverage given a net margin compressed to just 1.8%. Although the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests reasonable financial strength and the Beneish M-Score of -2.83 points away from earnings manipulation, the Altman Z-Score of 10.5 implies low bankruptcy risk primarily due to leverage rather than operational cash flow generation. The core economic narrative is one where high revenue growth of 20.3% has not yet corrected the negative return on invested capital dynamic.
Valuation metrics reflect a substantial divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models, with the stock trading at an extreme P/E multiple of 192.9x compared to both its five-year historical average of 160.3x and the sector median of 63.0x. This premium suggests the market is aggressively pricing in a sustained acceleration of free cash flow conversion that current fundamentals do not yet support, as indicated by a DCF fair value estimate implying -21.3% downside from current levels. The model assumes an implied ten-year FCF growth rate of 19.3%, which appears optimistic given the persistent negative ROIC spread; any failure to rapidly improve capital efficiency could precipitate a sharp re-rating toward historical norms or sector averages, exposing investors to significant valuation compression risk.
While the Piotroski score indicates stable balance sheet fundamentals and low distress probability, the gap between implied growth assumptions and actual return on invested capital creates a precarious risk/reward profile. The market's willingness to sustain such elevated multiples relies entirely on the assumption that future cash flows will expand at rates far exceeding current operational performance. Investors must weigh whether the 20% revenue trajectory can eventually drive margin expansion sufficient to justify the current price, or if the valuation disconnect remains unbridged by tangible improvements in capital efficiency.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 20% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12.2% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $44 | $36 | $31 |
| 3% | $47 | $38 | $32 |
| 4% | $52 | $41 | $34 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $39.49.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $38 (-21.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 15% above its 5-year average P/E of 160.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCalix, Inc. is currently trading at $39.81 within the technology sector, presenting a snapshot of its recent market behavior through key technical lenses. The immediate focus lies in determining whether the current price action sustains itself above or falls below critical moving average thresholds, which serves as a primary gauge for the prevailing trend direction. If the stock remains positioned higher than these dynamic averages, it typically signals that upward momentum is intact and buyers continue to exert control over recent pricing dynamics. Conversely, a breach of these levels could indicate shifting sentiment where downward pressure begins to outweigh previous gains. Short-term velocity appears to be influenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which acts as a crucial barometer for potential exhaustion or acceleration in price movement. Depending on whether this oscillator is hovering near overbought extremes or oversold conditions, it offers insight into the intensity of recent trading activity without dictating future outcomes. The interplay between the current valuation and these momentum indicators suggests that market participants are closely watching if the stock can maintain its trajectory or face resistance as it navigates through established support zones. Ultimately, the technical configuration reflects a balance where trend adherence and short-term strength must be weighed against potential reversals inherent in volatile technology equities.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTL or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CALX shares regardless of Calix, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $144M of passive capital is structurally linked to CALX through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CALX's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Calix, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Calix, Inc. (CALX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC (VIAV) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with CALX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CALX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 16 CALX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Calix, Inc. (CALX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.1% of the XTL (XTL) and 0.3% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 9 tracked ETFs, approximately 4M shares (6.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CALX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CALX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Calix, Inc. over the past year sits near $53.55 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $39.49 sits 26.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CALX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Calix, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Calix, Inc. converts 298% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-12.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 71 | $44.34 | $3,148.14 |
| 2026-04-24 | 53 | $42.69 | $2,262.57 |
| 2026-04-22 | 79,760 | $49.58 | $4.0M |
| 2026-04-08 | 90 | $48.78 | $4,390.2 |
| 2026-04-02 | 407 | $46.87 | $19,076.09 |
| 2026-03-31 | 845 | $49.40 | $41,743 |
| 2026-03-23 | 32 | $50.31 | $1,609.92 |
| 2026-03-09 | 27 | $50.47 | $1,362.69 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2,308 | $48.12 | $111,060.96 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DOV | 0.447 | 0.421 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.443 | 0.370 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.427 | 0.375 | Moderate |
| EXTR | 0.425 | 0.362 | Moderate |
| URI | 0.424 | 0.459 | Moderate |
| AME | 0.413 | 0.376 | Moderate |
| SARO | 0.411 | 0.361 | Moderate |
| GS | 0.409 | 0.335 | Moderate |
| WSM | 0.408 | 0.407 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CALX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.