Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCEG trades at 25.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.4. DCF fair value of $42 implies 86% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of CEG presents a significant structural headwind, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -4.7%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. Despite this negative cash flow generation potential, equity returns are being artificially sustained through high financial leverage; the DuPont decomposition reveals that while net margins remain healthy at 9.1% and asset turnover sits at a modest 0.45x, the majority of the 15.6% ROE is driven by an Equity Multiplier of 3.85x rather than operational excellence or margin expansion. Credit risk metrics show mixed signals: while the Altman Z-Score of 2.5 suggests elevated distress probability and the Beneish M-Score of -2.29 indicates low earnings manipulation risk, the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 confirms a generally strong financial position absent recent deterioration in fundamental quality.
Valuation metrics suggest a substantial disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a premium P/E multiple of 36.9x, significantly above historical norms and sector averages, reflecting aggressive growth expectations that are not supported by the underlying cash flow profile. A discounted cash flow analysis places fair value at $45, implying an -83.9% downside from current levels if the market's assumption of a 27.1% ten-year free cash flow growth rate fails to materialize. This extreme divergence implies the market is pricing in hyper-growth scenarios that contradict the weak profitability factor (RMW) alpha of -0.227 and the negative value factor exposure of -0.638, which collectively penalize high-growth, low-value strategies within a multi-factor framework.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis despite an anomalous Fama-French annualized alpha of 35.10%, likely driven by short-term momentum rather than sustainable factor exposure. The negative Value Factor and Profitability Factor alphas suggest the stock underperforms when tested against classic value and quality screens, while insider activity remains neutral with no significant flow over the last ninety days to signal management confidence or distress. Ultimately, the data paints a picture of a high-beta growth name where excessive valuation premiums are being sustained by leverage rather than organic capital efficiency, creating a scenario where any deceleration in revenue growth could trigger a rapid re-rating toward fundamental reality.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.6% | 11.6% | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $51 | $38 | $29 |
| 3% | $59 | $42 | $32 |
| 4% | $69 | $47 | $35 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $272.65.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $42 (-85.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 74% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedConstellation Energy Corporation is currently trading at $267.20, a position that requires contextual analysis against its moving average envelope to assess mean-reversion potential. Without specific values for the upper and lower bands of the standard deviation channel or the precise location of the Simple Moving Averages relative to this price point, it remains unclear whether the current valuation represents an extreme extension beyond historical volatility norms or a consolidation within a defined range. If the price were trading significantly above the mean line of its envelope, statistical probability might suggest a potential pullback toward equilibrium levels, whereas positioning well below could imply upward pressure as prices seek to correct lower deviations. In the Utilities sector, where capital allocation often favors stability over high-beta volatility, such relative-value dynamics are critical for understanding short-term momentum shifts rather than long-term directional trends. The current figure of $267.20 serves merely as a snapshot; its significance depends entirely on how it compares to recent price action and statistical averages that define the asset's normal trading band. Observers should evaluate whether this level coincides with support or resistance zones established by past volatility cycles, which would inform expectations regarding future reversion to the mean without predicting specific outcomes. Ultimately, the technical picture relies on the proximity of today's close to its recent average range, dictating whether market participants might anticipate a bounce from oversold conditions or a fade from overbought territory based purely on statistical deviation principles.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.4270 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-09 | $0.4270 | +10.1% |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.3880 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.3880 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.3880 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | $0.3880 | +9.9% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.3530 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.3530 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-29 | $0.3530 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.3530 | +25.2% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.2820 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-11 | $0.2820 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CEG shares regardless of Constellation Energy Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $17.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to CEG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Constellation Energy Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CEG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CEG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 CEG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 6.4% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 6.0% of the VPU (VPU). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 56M shares (15.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CEG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CEG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Constellation Energy Corporation over the past year sits near $306.24 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $272.65 sits 11.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CEG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Constellation Energy Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Constellation Energy Corporation converts 22% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 78% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 1,435 | $321.05 | $460,706.75 |
| 2026-05-04 | 178 | $307.81 | $54,790.18 |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,745 | $313.00 | $546,185 |
| 2026-04-28 | 2 | $315.17 | $630.34 |
| 2026-04-24 | 2 | $292.77 | $585.54 |
| 2026-04-22 | 9,579 | $277.70 | $2.7M |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,464 | $296.21 | $729,861.44 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1 | $299.14 | $299.14 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $296.61 | $889.83 |
| 2026-04-07 | 140 | $275.16 | $38,522.4 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,991 | $272.82 | $816,004.62 |
| 2026-04-02 | 2,360 | $279.46 | $659,525.6 |
| 2026-03-31 | 50,615 | $298.61 | $15.1M |
| 2026-03-30 | 48,997 | $301.49 | $14.8M |
| 2026-03-27 | 1 | $295.19 | $295.19 |
| 2026-03-25 | 31 | $294.85 | $9,140.35 |
| 2026-03-24 | 88 | $289.76 | $25,498.88 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,364 | $281.99 | $384,634.36 |
| 2026-03-02 | 55,832 | $329.88 | $18.4M |
| 2026-02-26 | 798 | $325.84 | $260,020.32 |
| 2026-02-24 | 992 | $293.80 | $291,449.6 |
| 2026-02-23 | 7,315 | $294.84 | $2.2M |
| 2026-02-18 | 6,789 | $303.01 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-17 | 49,121 | $288.43 | $14.2M |
| 2026-02-09 | 1 | $261.42 | $261.42 |
| 2026-02-05 | 3 | $250.46 | $751.38 |
| 2026-02-04 | 200 | $268.45 | $53,690 |
| 2026-02-03 | 30 | $270.88 | $8,126.4 |
| 2026-01-28 | 164 | $288.76 | $47,356.64 |
| 2026-01-23 | 2 | $287.35 | $574.7 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VST | 0.796 | 0.811 | High co-movement |
| NRG | 0.634 | 0.734 | Moderate |
| VRT | 0.542 | 0.476 | Moderate |
| PWR | 0.523 | 0.507 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.503 | 0.526 | Moderate |
| EME | 0.498 | 0.480 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.474 | 0.420 | Moderate |
| FN | 0.455 | 0.509 | Moderate |
| APH | 0.455 | 0.460 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CEG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.