Vistra Corp. (VST)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicVST trades at 26.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.4.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of VST reveal a capital allocation challenge where the ROIC-WACC spread sits at -5.8%, indicating that current operations are failing to generate returns sufficient to cover the cost of equity and debt. Despite an elevated DuPont ROE of 18.5%, this metric is driven almost entirely by high financial leverage with an Equity Multiplier of 8.13x, rather than operational efficiency or margin expansion; in fact, weak profitability signals are evident with a Profitability Factor (RMW) of -0.259 and sluggish revenue growth of just 3.0% year-over-year. Credit risk is heightened by an Altman Z-Score of 1.4, suggesting proximity to distress, while the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 reflects mediocre financial strength relative to peers. Conversely, the Beneish M-Score of -2.53 points toward low earnings manipulation risk, and the substantial positive Fama-French Alpha of 59.39% indicates significant outperformance against standard factor benchmarks over the measured period.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence from underlying fundamentals, with the current P/E ratio at 69.3x vastly exceeding historical norms and sector averages given the company's low growth trajectory. This premium valuation appears to be priced on an implied free cash flow growth rate of 28.4% over ten years, a figure that contradicts the observed revenue stagnation and negative ROIC spread. The market is effectively pricing in a transformational acceleration of profitability or asset efficiency that has not yet materialized in earnings per share, creating a scenario where future expectations are decoupled from current operational reality.
Risk factors further complicate the risk-reward profile, as insider activity shows $1,603,100 net selling over the last 90 days, which often signals management caution regarding near-term prospects or valuation levels. The negative Value Factor (HML) of -0.785 confirms a distinct growth tilt in the stock's characteristics, exposing it to higher volatility during market rotations toward value assets. While the low Beneish score offers some reassurance regarding earnings integrity, the combination of distressed credit metrics, leveraged capital structure, and insider outflows suggests that the current multiple may not be supported by sustainable cash flow generation absent a significant operational turnaround.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 54% above its 5-year average P/E of 46.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | $0.2280 | +0.4% |
| 2025-12-22 | $0.2270 | +0.4% |
| 2025-09-19 | $0.2260 | +0.4% |
| 2025-06-18 | $0.2250 | +0.4% |
| 2025-03-20 | $0.2240 | +0.9% |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.2220 | +0.9% |
| 2024-09-20 | $0.2200 | +0.9% |
| 2024-06-18 | $0.2180 | +1.4% |
| 2024-03-19 | $0.2150 | +0.9% |
| 2023-12-19 | $0.2130 | +3.4% |
| 2023-09-19 | $0.2060 | +1.0% |
| 2023-06-20 | $0.2040 | +3.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell VST shares regardless of Vistra Corp.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to VST through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Vistra Corp. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Vistra Corp. (VST) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with VST. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
VST Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 VST shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Vistra Corp. (VST) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.4% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 3.3% of the VPU (VPU). Across 27 tracked ETFs, approximately 54M shares (15.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest VST Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 27 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
VST Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Vistra Corp. over the past year sits near $160.79 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $157.97 sits 1.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
VST Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Vistra Corp. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Vistra Corp. converts 26% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 74% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 1,539 | $146.87 | $226,032.93 |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,643 | $157.84 | $259,331.12 |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,900 | $164.35 | $312,265 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $163.97 | $491.91 |
| 2026-03-30 | 700 | $155.48 | $108,836 |
| 2026-03-25 | 32 | $152.72 | $4,887.04 |
| 2026-03-23 | 13 | $146.02 | $1,898.26 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,147 | $176.82 | $202,812.54 |
| 2026-02-24 | 1,365 | $167.80 | $229,047 |
| 2026-02-17 | 4,800 | $171.49 | $823,152 |
| 2026-02-12 | 22 | $160.15 | $3,523.3 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,131 | $149.65 | $169,254.15 |
| 2026-02-06 | 60 | $143.07 | $8,584.2 |
| 2026-01-29 | 2,599 | $165.64 | $430,498.36 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2 | $160.02 | $320.04 |
| 2026-01-14 | 15 | $171.42 | $2,571.3 |
| 2026-01-12 | 100 | $166.37 | $16,637 |
| 2026-01-09 | 232 | $150.60 | $34,939.2 |
| 2025-12-31 | 917 | $162.62 | $149,122.54 |
| 2025-12-26 | 16 | $161.96 | $2,591.36 |
| 2025-12-24 | 456 | $161.67 | $73,721.52 |
| 2025-12-17 | 356 | $173.45 | $61,748.2 |
| 2025-12-08 | 662 | $167.17 | $110,666.54 |
| 2025-12-03 | 9,846 | $172.55 | $1.7M |
| 2025-12-01 | 3,479 | $178.86 | $622,253.94 |
| 2025-11-25 | 312 | $175.14 | $54,643.68 |
| 2025-11-17 | 15 | $174.69 | $2,620.35 |
| 2025-11-14 | 179 | $171.56 | $30,709.24 |
| 2025-11-10 | 13,482 | $191.00 | $2.6M |
| 2025-11-07 | 2,254 | $184.62 | $416,133.48 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CEG | 0.796 | 0.811 | High co-movement |
| NRG | 0.730 | 0.785 | High co-movement |
| PWR | 0.525 | 0.497 | Moderate |
| EME | 0.511 | 0.495 | Moderate |
| VRT | 0.503 | 0.397 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.486 | 0.511 | Moderate |
| APH | 0.469 | 0.474 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.468 | 0.511 | Moderate |
| AVGO | 0.468 | 0.447 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare VST to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.