BHP Group Limited (BHP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.1x earnings — a 40% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — BHP is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.8. DCF fair value of $20 implies 75% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of BHP demonstrates a robust spread between return on invested capital and the cost of equity, with an 8.3% gap suggesting strong value creation potential despite recent revenue contraction. This resilience is underpinned by exceptional gross margins at 71.7%, yet the DuPont decomposition reveals that current Return on Equity relies heavily on leverage (2.08x) rather than margin expansion or asset turnover efficiency, which remains subdued at 0.47x. Credit and integrity metrics present a mixed picture; while the Beneish M-Score of -2.88 indicates low earnings manipulation risk and the Altman Z-Score of 3.6 suggests adequate solvency, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals moderate financial health with limited momentum from recent operational shifts.
Valuation metrics currently reflect significant skepticism regarding future growth assumptions relative to historical precedents or sector norms. The current price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2x appears elevated when weighed against a discounted cash flow model that implies substantial downside, projecting a fair value of $21 and an implied discount of -71.5%. This divergence stems largely from the DCF's reliance on an aggressive long-term free cash flow growth assumption of 14% over ten years, which may not align with the observed revenue decline of -7.9% year-over-year. Consequently, market pricing seems to anticipate a material compression in future earnings power that contradicts the company's current profitability trajectory.
Factor analysis further contextualizes the risk-reward profile, highlighting exposure as a value stock rather than a growth or momentum play. The portfolio exhibits a positive 0.120 tilt toward the Value factor and neutral positioning on Profitability, while generating a negative annualized Fama-French Alpha of -0.51%, indicating underperformance relative to its risk-adjusted benchmark over the measurement period. With no discernible insider buying or selling activity detected in the last ninety days, management sentiment appears neutral, offering limited additional signal regarding immediate strategic direction for shareholders evaluating these fundamental and factor-based dynamics.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $24 | $17 | $13 |
| 3% | $29 | $20 | $15 |
| 4% | $37 | $23 | $16 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $93.15.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $20 (-75.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 41% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedBHP Group Limited currently trades at $84.40 within the Basic Materials sector, presenting a technical profile where price action must be weighed against inherent volatility risks in commodity-linked equities. The current valuation level sits at a critical juncture where short-term momentum could easily reverse if broader market sentiment shifts or if fundamental supply-demand imbalances tighten margins. Without visible support structures holding firm above recent lows, any upward movement may lack the structural depth to withstand heightened drawdowns typical of cyclical materials plays during periods of economic uncertainty. The interplay between price and volatility suggests that momentum is potentially fragile rather than robust, as the asset remains sensitive to external macroeconomic triggers often seen in this sector. While the current level offers a specific entry point for short-term traders monitoring relative strength, the absence of confirmed trend confirmation implies that downside pressure could accelerate quickly if fundamental backdrops deteriorate. Investors must remain vigilant regarding how commodity price fluctuations interact with leverage and margin requirements, as these factors can amplify losses during sharp corrections. The technical setup indicates a need for caution, where potential gains are closely matched by exposure to sudden reversals driven by shifting global trade dynamics or unexpected operational headwinds affecting production costs.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | $1.4600 | +46.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | $1.0000 | -32.4% |
| 2024-09-13 | $1.4800 | +2.8% |
| 2024-03-07 | $1.4400 | -10.0% |
| 2023-09-07 | $1.6000 | -11.1% |
| 2023-03-09 | $1.8000 | -48.6% |
| 2022-09-01 | $3.5000 | +30.8% |
| 2022-02-24 | $2.6762 | -25.0% |
| 2021-09-02 | $3.5682 | +98.0% |
| 2021-03-04 | $1.8020 | +83.6% |
| 2020-09-03 | $0.9813 | -15.4% |
| 2020-03-05 | $1.1597 | -16.7% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VPL or VYMI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BHP shares regardless of BHP Group Limited's individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to BHP through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in BHP Group Limited to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If BHP Group Limited (BHP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (005930) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BHP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BHP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 24 BHP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
BHP Group Limited (BHP) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.6% of the VPL (VPL) and 1.1% of the VYMI (VYMI). Across 8 tracked ETFs, approximately 107M shares (4.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest BHP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BHP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for BHP Group Limited over the past year sits near $53.41 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $93.15 trades 74.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BHP Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does BHP Group Limited convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
BHP Group Limited converts 36% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 64% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 184,905 | $90.81 | $16.8M |
| 2026-05-13 | 32,041 | $88.32 | $2.8M |
| 2026-05-12 | 9,013 | $87.65 | $789,989.45 |
| 2026-05-11 | 12,948 | $84.72 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-08 | 47 | $82.55 | $3,879.85 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2,613 | $84.33 | $220,354.29 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,157 | $79.24 | $91,680.68 |
| 2026-05-05 | 24,693 | $77.87 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-04 | 97 | $79.06 | $7,668.82 |
| 2026-04-30 | 121,910 | $77.06 | $9.4M |
| 2026-04-29 | 24,918 | $78.12 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-24 | 5,929 | $79.84 | $473,371.36 |
| 2026-04-22 | 329,299 | $77.69 | $25.6M |
| 2026-04-21 | 76,437 | $79.59 | $6.1M |
| 2026-04-20 | 55,392 | $80.45 | $4.5M |
| 2026-04-17 | 428 | $79.47 | $34,013.16 |
| 2026-04-15 | 25,037 | $79.17 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-14 | 95,979 | $78.10 | $7.5M |
| 2026-04-13 | 9,806 | $76.81 | $753,198.86 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2,223 | $77.23 | $171,682.29 |
| 2026-04-09 | 4,335 | $76.96 | $333,621.6 |
| 2026-04-08 | 66,162 | $73.31 | $4.9M |
| 2026-04-07 | 12,052 | $72.79 | $877,265.08 |
| 2026-04-06 | 13,478 | $73.24 | $987,128.72 |
| 2026-04-02 | 105,474 | $73.56 | $7.8M |
| 2026-04-01 | 73,410 | $72.74 | $5.3M |
| 2026-03-31 | 26,332 | $69.02 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-30 | 196,123 | $69.50 | $13.6M |
| 2026-03-27 | 222 | $68.50 | $15,207 |
| 2026-03-26 | 138,662 | $70.01 | $9.7M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| RIO | 0.860 | 0.867 | High co-movement |
| FCX | 0.645 | 0.793 | Moderate |
| SQM | 0.527 | 0.561 | Moderate |
| ALB | 0.500 | 0.525 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.499 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.481 | 0.560 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.477 | 0.507 | Moderate |
| AA | 0.467 | 0.462 | Moderate |
| STT | 0.461 | 0.503 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BHP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.