The Cigna Group (CI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 2.4x earnings — a 96% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — CI is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.7. DCF fair value of $609 implies 121% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of The Cigna Group reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 4.6% falls below the weighted average cost of capital at 5.7%, resulting in a negative spread that erodes shareholder value over time. Despite this inefficiency, earnings per share are supported by significant financial leverage rather than operational margin expansion or asset efficiency; the DuPont decomposition shows ROE is driven almost entirely by an equity multiplier of 3.77x, while net margins remain thin at 2.2%. Creditworthiness appears constrained with an Altman Z-Score of 2.7 indicating potential distress risk, and financial strength is further questioned by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, suggesting moderate but not robust fundamental improvement over the trailing period.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from cash flow assumptions. The stock trades at a current P/E of 12.2x, which is substantially discounted relative to the sector average of 30.8x, yet this discount appears misaligned with the DCF model's fair value estimate of $894, implying potential upside if long-term free cash flow growth assumptions hold true. However, the underlying premise for such a high valuation relies on an implied ten-year FCF growth rate of -7.3%, creating a logical tension between the current multiple and the projected negative growth trajectory that supports the DCF calculation.
Risk factors highlighted by factor models and insider activity suggest headwinds despite the attractive value tilt. The stock exhibits significant downside risk relative to its benchmark with an annualized Fama-French alpha of -17.92%, indicating persistent underperformance after adjusting for size, value, and profitability characteristics. While the Value Factor score of 0.669 confirms a strong value profile consistent with low multiples, this is offset by neutral profitability momentum (RMW: 0.008) and concerning insider dynamics showing $1,163,151 in net selling over the last ninety days, which may signal management concerns regarding future execution or capital structure stability.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 12% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $596 | $487 | $324 |
| 3% | $786 | $609 | $376 |
| 4% | $1165 | $818 | $450 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $272.72.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $609 (+121.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 39% below its 5-year average P/E of 20.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe Cigna Group currently trades at $286.69 within the healthcare sector, presenting a technical snapshot where price action must be weighed against inherent risk dynamics rather than isolated data points. Without specific indicators for drawdown depth or volatility metrics in the provided dataset, assessing whether current momentum is structural or fragile requires caution; the absence of these variables means one cannot definitively determine if recent price movements are supported by broad-based strength or merely temporary liquidity flows. The fundamental backdrop of the healthcare industry often introduces unique cyclical pressures that can amplify technical noise, suggesting that any observed uptick in value at this level may be susceptible to sudden reversals if external headwinds materialize. Consequently, the relationship between price and potential downside risk remains opaque without further context on historical drawdowns or variance ratios. A high current valuation does not inherently imply stability, especially when sector-specific regulatory shifts or reimbursement changes could act as catalysts for rapid devaluation. The technical setup appears neutral pending additional data that would clarify the resilience of this support level against adverse shocks. Observers must recognize that in volatile environments like healthcare, apparent strength can quickly erode if underlying fundamentals fail to sustain the current trajectory, leaving the asset's path highly dependent on future macroeconomic and regulatory developments rather than immediate chart patterns alone.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | $1.5600 | +3.3% |
| 2025-12-04 | $1.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-04 | $1.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-03 | $1.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-05 | $1.5100 | +7.9% |
| 2024-12-04 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-04 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-04 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-05 | $1.4000 | +13.8% |
| 2023-12-05 | $1.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-05 | $1.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-06 | $1.2300 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CI shares regardless of The Cigna Group's individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to CI through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Cigna Group to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Cigna Group (CI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 CI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Cigna Group (CI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.9% of the XHS (XHS) and 1.4% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 32M shares (12.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Cigna Group over the past year sits near $273.10 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $272.72 sits 0.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Cigna Group convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Cigna Group converts 70% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | 20 | $278.64 | $5,572.8 |
| 2026-04-07 | 4 | $275.69 | $1,102.76 |
| 2026-04-06 | 4 | $270.02 | $1,080.08 |
| 2026-03-25 | 27 | $265.87 | $7,178.49 |
| 2026-02-25 | 5,894 | $281.00 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-20 | 7,995 | $285.92 | $2.3M |
| 2026-02-13 | 11,346 | $287.61 | $3.3M |
| 2026-02-12 | 18 | $294.73 | $5,305.14 |
| 2026-01-21 | 17,560 | $271.24 | $4.8M |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,100 | $272.21 | $299,431 |
| 2025-12-30 | 122 | $276.01 | $33,673.22 |
| 2025-12-23 | 4,265 | $275.60 | $1.2M |
| 2025-12-22 | 61,120 | $271.89 | $16.6M |
| 2025-12-15 | 315 | $274.70 | $86,530.5 |
| 2025-12-12 | 348 | $272.26 | $94,746.48 |
| 2025-12-10 | 75 | $262.71 | $19,703.25 |
| 2025-11-25 | 31,639 | $271.47 | $8.6M |
| 2025-11-24 | 8,043 | $278.09 | $2.2M |
| 2025-11-20 | 20 | $271.99 | $5,439.8 |
| 2025-11-14 | 769 | $270.89 | $208,314.41 |
| 2025-11-05 | 1,053 | $264.66 | $278,686.98 |
| 2025-10-15 | 12 | $302.13 | $3,625.56 |
| 2025-10-10 | 452 | $306.13 | $138,370.76 |
| 2025-10-08 | 10,380 | $307.14 | $3.2M |
| 2025-10-06 | 201 | $311.00 | $62,511 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BAX | 0.530 | 0.555 | Moderate |
| CVS | 0.479 | 0.455 | Moderate |
| ELV | 0.449 | 0.386 | Moderate |
| CMG | 0.446 | 0.562 | Moderate |
| FMC | 0.446 | 0.505 | Moderate |
| HUM | 0.401 | 0.341 | Moderate |
| IP | 0.385 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| EXR | 0.382 | 0.299 | Moderate |
| MO | 0.371 | 0.403 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.