The Campbell's Company (CPB)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 11.5x earnings — a 65% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — CPB is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.7. DCF fair value of $33 implies 63% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this consumer defensive name present a dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure leverage. While the company demonstrates a robust Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, indicating strong financial health relative to peers, the Altman Z-Score of 1.7 suggests elevated distress risk that warrants scrutiny despite the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.70 which signals low earnings manipulation probability. The DuPont decomposition reveals that an ROE of 15.4% is driven primarily by significant leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.82x) rather than operational momentum, as evidenced by modest revenue growth of 6.4% and a net margin of only 5.9%. Although the positive ROIC-WACC spread of +3.2% confirms value creation on invested capital, this return is compressed relative to the sector's implied tolerance for risk given the leverage-heavy profile.
Valuation metrics highlight a profound disconnect between current pricing and intrinsic worth derived from cash flow models. Trading at 11.1x forward earnings compared to a sector average of 34.2x, the stock appears severely undervalued on traditional multiples. However, this compression is mathematically supported by a DCF model implying negative free cash flow growth over ten years (-12.2%), which drives the fair value estimate significantly lower than current market prices and suggests an implied upside of 341.4% if long-term growth assumptions improve or leverage deleverages. This aggressive discount reflects the market pricing in persistent stagnation rather than recognizing the potential for mean reversion, creating a scenario where high valuation multiples are absent not due to quality issues alone, but because expectations for future expansion remain deeply pessimistic.
Risk factors further complicate the risk-reward profile despite the attractive profitability factor (RMW) of 0.524. The negative Fama-French alpha of -35.07% indicates underperformance relative to a growth-adjusted benchmark, while the value factor score of -0.326 suggests the stock lacks the characteristics typically rewarded in high-value portfolios. Compounding these technical signals is recent insider activity showing $396,653 in net selling over 90 days, which may signal management caution regarding near-term execution or capital allocation priorities. Collectively, these data points suggest a highly contrarian setup where deep valuation discounts coexist with structural risks and weak forward growth assumptions, requiring investors to weigh the potential for extreme mean reversion against the probability of continued stagnation in a low-growth environment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6% | 8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $22 | $22 | $9 |
| 3% | $33 | $33 | $13 |
| 4% | $55 | $55 | $19 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $20.99.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $33 (+63.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 27% below its 5-year average P/E of 15.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCampbell's Company is currently trading at $20.34, a price point that necessitates an analysis of its position relative to the surrounding Simple Moving Average envelope to gauge potential mean-reversion dynamics. Without specific upper and lower boundary values for this moving average range, it remains impossible to definitively classify whether the current valuation represents a statistical outlier or sits comfortably within historical norms. If the $20.34 price level were significantly detached from the central trend line of its moving averages, such divergence often signals an increased probability of a corrective move toward the mean over time. Conversely, pricing that aligns closely with the mid-range of the envelope suggests sustained momentum rather than immediate reversal potential. In the context of the Consumer Defensive sector, defensive characteristics may influence how volatility manifests relative to broader market swings, potentially altering the typical speed or magnitude of any anticipated reversion. The current setup does not provide sufficient granular data regarding band width or recent trend direction to confirm a specific bias toward either breakout or breakdown scenarios. Observers might note that further confirmation would require observing price action interacting with these calculated boundaries over subsequent periods. Ultimately, determining whether the stock is poised for a return to equilibrium depends entirely on where this $20.34 figure sits in relation to its own historical moving average structure, which remains undefined in the provided dataset.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-02 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-03 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-02 | $0.3900 | +5.4% |
| 2024-10-03 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-03 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-03 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-03 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-04 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-05 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SPYD or DVY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CPB shares regardless of The Campbell's Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $641M of passive capital is structurally linked to CPB through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CPB's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Campbell's Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Campbell's Company (CPB) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CPB. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 20 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CPB Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 CPB shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Campbell's Company (CPB) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.9% of the SPYD (SPYD) and 0.5% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY). Across 21 tracked ETFs, approximately 32M shares (10.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CPB Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 21 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CPB Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Campbell's Company over the past year sits near $20.62 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $20.99 trades 1.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CPB Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Campbell's Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Campbell's Company converts 45% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 55% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 72,209 | $20.35 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-08 | 114,149 | $21.25 | $2.4M |
| 2026-05-07 | 32,104 | $20.96 | $672,899.84 |
| 2026-05-06 | 302 | $20.91 | $6,314.82 |
| 2026-05-05 | 83,136 | $20.50 | $1.7M |
| 2026-05-04 | 149,168 | $20.73 | $3.1M |
| 2026-05-01 | 224 | $20.79 | $4,656.96 |
| 2026-04-29 | 3,370 | $20.54 | $69,219.8 |
| 2026-04-28 | 51,002 | $20.55 | $1.0M |
| 2026-04-27 | 275 | $20.62 | $5,670.5 |
| 2026-04-24 | 348,851 | $20.96 | $7.3M |
| 2026-04-22 | 321 | $20.91 | $6,712.11 |
| 2026-04-21 | 831 | $21.26 | $17,667.06 |
| 2026-04-20 | 7,122 | $20.99 | $149,490.78 |
| 2026-04-17 | 10,608 | $20.94 | $222,131.52 |
| 2026-04-16 | 20 | $20.49 | $409.8 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $20.00 | $60 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2 | $20.17 | $40.34 |
| 2026-04-13 | 20,961 | $20.43 | $428,233.23 |
| 2026-04-10 | 298,898 | $20.79 | $6.2M |
| 2026-04-09 | 94,329 | $20.69 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-08 | 6 | $20.88 | $125.28 |
| 2026-04-07 | 15 | $22.02 | $330.3 |
| 2026-04-02 | 639,233 | $22.38 | $14.3M |
| 2026-04-01 | 364,360 | $22.27 | $8.1M |
| 2026-03-31 | 122,076 | $22.18 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-30 | 538,247 | $21.99 | $11.8M |
| 2026-03-27 | 149,511 | $20.95 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 460,686 | $20.91 | $9.6M |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,193 | $21.00 | $25,053 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GIS | 0.736 | 0.736 | High co-movement |
| KHC | 0.686 | 0.657 | Moderate |
| CAG | 0.682 | 0.672 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.500 | 0.508 | Moderate |
| TAP | 0.484 | 0.530 | Moderate |
| MKC | 0.477 | 0.459 | Moderate |
| SJM | 0.459 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| HRL | 0.445 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.431 | 0.428 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CPB to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.