CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 25.8x earnings — a 45% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — CTRE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 5.1. DCF fair value of $65 implies 67% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of CareTrust REIT, Inc. present a distinct divergence between operational leverage and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals an exceptionally high net margin of 86.8% driven primarily by low asset turnover rather than superior profitability spread, this is counterbalanced by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -3.1%, indicating that current returns fail to cover the cost of capital. Despite these capital efficiency concerns, financial health metrics remain robust; an Altman Z-Score of 4.8 suggests strong solvency, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.47 points toward low earnings manipulation risk and a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects solid fundamental stability relative to peers.
Valuation analysis highlights a significant premium over historical norms but remains markedly discounted against the broader real estate sector average P/E of 84.5x, where CTRE trades at 25.3x. A DCF model implies substantial upside potential with a fair value estimate of $68 and an 84.4% gap from current levels, assuming a ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 7.1%. This pricing suggests the market is currently underweighting future cash flow generation relative to intrinsic value models, though investors must weigh this against the company's specific capital return profile which does not yet meet hurdle rates.
Risk and reward factors further nuance the investment case through factor exposure and insider dynamics. The stock exhibits a strong positive Fama-French alpha of 21.64% annually, driven largely by its value tilt with an HML factor score of 0.161, while profitability momentum remains neutral at -0.067. With no significant insider buying or selling activity observed over the last ninety days, there is limited recent signal regarding management's immediate confidence in near-term execution. The combination of deep valuation discounts and strong value factors contrasts with the drag on capital efficiency, creating a complex risk-reward profile dependent on future margin expansion or asset turnover improvements.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 62% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $82 | $57 | $43 |
| 3% | $100 | $65 | $47 |
| 4% | $129 | $76 | $53 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $38.73.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $65 (+67.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 49% above its 5-year average P/E of 16.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCareTrust REIT, Inc. is currently trading at $41.52 within the real estate sector, a position that warrants scrutiny regarding its underlying risk dynamics rather than immediate directional bias. Without access to specific drawdown metrics or volatility bands in this dataset, it remains impossible to determine if any observed momentum stems from structural fundamental support or fragile speculative positioning. The absence of historical price action data prevents an assessment of whether the current level represents a resilient floor or a precarious peak susceptible to rapid correction upon sector headwinds. In the broader context of real estate investment trusts, valuation levels often fluctuate sharply based on interest rate environments and occupancy trends, factors not explicitly detailed here but critical for interpreting risk exposure. A singular price point does not reveal the stability of cash flows or the depth of recent corrections that might influence future volatility profiles. Consequently, while the stock sits at $41.52, characterizing this setup as either robustly established or dangerously exposed requires additional layers of technical history and fundamental analysis beyond the current snapshot. The interplay between price level and risk profile suggests a need for caution in interpreting short-term trends without corroborating data on volume profiles or moving averages. Whether the market perceives this valuation as attractive or overextended depends heavily on unseen variables such as dividend sustainability relative to yield expectations and comparative performance against peers. Ultimately, the current information highlights a static moment in time that lacks sufficient context to define the trajectory of potential future risk or reward for participants evaluating this asset
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $0.3900 | +16.4% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.3350 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.3350 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.3350 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.3350 | +15.5% |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.2900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.2900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.2900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.2900 | +3.6% |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYG or IWN, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CTRE shares regardless of CareTrust REIT, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $918M of passive capital is structurally linked to CTRE through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CTRE's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CareTrust REIT, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CTRE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CTRE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 CTRE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.5% of the MDYG (MDYG) and 0.5% of the IWN (IWN). Across 9 tracked ETFs, approximately 23M shares (9.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CTRE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CTRE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CareTrust REIT, Inc. over the past year sits near $36.24 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $38.73 trades 6.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CTRE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CareTrust REIT, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CareTrust REIT, Inc. converts 83% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 251 | $39.50 | $9,914.5 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2,225 | $39.19 | $87,197.75 |
| 2026-04-28 | 138 | $38.76 | $5,348.88 |
| 2026-04-22 | 6,888 | $38.36 | $264,223.68 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,372 | $39.50 | $54,194 |
| 2026-03-26 | 13,290 | $37.59 | $499,571.1 |
| 2026-03-23 | 261 | $36.10 | $9,422.1 |
| 2026-03-16 | 3,654 | $40.03 | $146,269.62 |
| 2026-03-09 | 115 | $39.94 | $4,593.1 |
| 2026-03-04 | 512 | $40.01 | $20,485.12 |
| 2026-02-06 | 5,520 | $38.61 | $213,127.2 |
| 2026-01-23 | 15,700 | $36.54 | $573,678 |
| 2025-12-31 | 37,332 | $36.93 | $1.4M |
| 2025-12-22 | 752 | $36.33 | $27,320.16 |
| 2025-12-17 | 78 | $36.32 | $2,832.96 |
| 2025-12-16 | 78 | $36.59 | $2,854.02 |
| 2025-12-10 | 3 | $37.49 | $112.47 |
| 2025-11-24 | 23,663 | $36.70 | $868,432.1 |
| 2025-11-19 | 3 | $36.91 | $110.73 |
| 2025-11-10 | 74,687 | $36.15 | $2.7M |
| 2025-11-03 | 245 | $34.65 | $8,489.25 |
| 2025-10-31 | 548 | $34.35 | $18,823.8 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2,992 | $35.17 | $105,228.64 |
| 2025-10-21 | 250 | $35.19 | $8,797.5 |
| 2025-10-10 | 279 | $33.81 | $9,432.99 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| OHI | 0.717 | 0.740 | High co-movement |
| WELL | 0.643 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| AHR | 0.544 | 0.580 | Moderate |
| VTR | 0.519 | 0.537 | Moderate |
| ADC | 0.488 | 0.427 | Moderate |
| O | 0.463 | 0.431 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.443 | 0.467 | Moderate |
| WPC | 0.428 | 0.421 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.407 | 0.395 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CTRE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.