Corteva, Inc. (CTVA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCTVA trades at 42.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.5. DCF fair value of $181 implies 117% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a capital allocation challenge where the company generates an ROIC of 4.8% against a WACC of 9.2%, resulting in a negative spread that materially erodes shareholder value over time. Despite this inefficiency, profitability is supported by robust gross margins at 47.3%, though these are offset by modest net margins and low asset turnover of 0.41x within the DuPont decomposition. Financial stability metrics present a mixed signal; while the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong balance sheet quality, an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 suggests proximity to distress thresholds that warrants monitoring, whereas the Beneish M-Score of -2.71 points toward low earnings manipulation risk.
Valuation metrics display a significant divergence between current pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a premium P/E multiple of 48.8x compared to historical norms and sector averages, implying that the market is anticipating aggressive future expansion rather than reflecting current operational efficiency. However, discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value of $174 with an implied upside of 107.8%, driven by assumptions regarding long-term free cash flow growth of 4.7% over ten years. This disparity indicates that the market price may be decoupled from fundamental performance given the negative ROIC-WACC spread, potentially pricing in a re-rating of capital efficiency or a shift in business model dynamics not yet realized in earnings.
Risk and return factors introduce complexity to the investment thesis through conflicting data points on momentum versus value characteristics. The stock exhibits positive Fama-French alpha at 1.09% annually and carries a value tilt with an HML factor of 0.380, suggesting it has underperformed growth stocks while aligning somewhat with value strategies. Conversely, insider activity over the last ninety days shows $636,200 in net selling, which may signal management caution despite the attractive DCF-based upside potential. The combination of a neutral profitability factor and weak capital returns creates an asymmetric risk profile where valuation expansion is required to justify current levels absent significant improvements in asset turnover or margin leverage.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $228 | $159 | $122 |
| 3% | $278 | $181 | $133 |
| 4% | $363 | $212 | $149 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $77.57.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $181 (+117.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 25% above its 5-year average P/E of 38.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCorteva, Inc. is currently trading at $81.08 within the Basic Materials sector. While specific moving average envelope parameters are not provided in the available data to calculate a precise deviation percentage or identify exact support/resistance boundaries relative to recent price action, this current valuation level serves as the baseline for assessing potential mean-reversion dynamics. In technical analysis frameworks involving SMA envelopes, prices trading near the upper band often suggest an overextended condition that historically precedes a pullback toward the central moving average, whereas positions near the lower band may indicate oversold conditions ripe for a rebound to the mean. Without knowing whether $81.08 resides at the extreme edges of such an envelope or comfortably within its bounds, one cannot definitively characterize the immediate probability of price regression versus continuation based solely on this single data point. The absence of comparative moving average data prevents a definitive assessment of momentum strength relative to short-term trends. If the current price were significantly elevated above a long-term SMA, it might theoretically imply heightened volatility and a statistical likelihood of correction toward historical averages. Conversely, if the stock is trading close to its lower envelope limits, it could suggest a floor beneath further downside pressure, potentially setting up conditions for a bounce back toward equilibrium levels. Any interpretation of these scenarios requires additional context regarding the specific timeframe of the moving average and the width of the channel used by market participants to define normal price ranges. Ultimately, determining whether $81.08 represents a value opportunity
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.1800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.1800 | +5.9% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.1700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.1700 | +6.3% |
| 2024-06-04 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.1600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.1600 | +6.7% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CTVA shares regardless of Corteva, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to CTVA through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Corteva, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CTVA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CTVA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CTVA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.5% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 3.5% of the VAW (VAW). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 97M shares (14.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CTVA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CTVA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Corteva, Inc. over the past year sits near $72.30 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $77.57 trades 7.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CTVA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Corteva, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Corteva, Inc. converts 92% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 398 | $83.35 | $33,173.3 |
| 2026-05-12 | 26,926 | $82.83 | $2.2M |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,922 | $79.07 | $151,972.54 |
| 2026-05-07 | 736 | $81.77 | $60,182.72 |
| 2026-05-04 | 56,405 | $80.85 | $4.6M |
| 2026-04-30 | 11 | $79.37 | $873.07 |
| 2026-04-20 | 5,000 | $80.34 | $401,700 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $82.95 | $497.7 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,955 | $83.51 | $163,262.05 |
| 2026-04-06 | 62 | $85.46 | $5,298.52 |
| 2026-03-31 | 32,723 | $82.95 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-25 | 68 | $80.58 | $5,479.44 |
| 2026-03-23 | 11,278 | $77.33 | $872,127.74 |
| 2026-03-11 | 28,614 | $76.31 | $2.2M |
| 2026-03-10 | 2,149 | $78.30 | $168,266.7 |
| 2026-03-06 | 6,082 | $76.59 | $465,820.38 |
| 2026-03-05 | 1,182 | $78.00 | $92,196 |
| 2026-02-26 | 304 | $77.67 | $23,611.68 |
| 2026-02-23 | 434 | $76.31 | $33,118.54 |
| 2026-02-19 | 14,893 | $76.59 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-12 | 11 | $75.32 | $828.52 |
| 2026-02-09 | 550 | $72.60 | $39,930 |
| 2026-02-06 | 13,343 | $72.47 | $966,967.21 |
| 2026-01-07 | 132 | $69.37 | $9,156.84 |
| 2026-01-05 | 37 | $67.76 | $2,507.12 |
| 2025-12-29 | 19,734 | $67.44 | $1.3M |
| 2025-12-24 | 3 | $67.15 | $201.45 |
| 2025-12-22 | 7,751 | $66.31 | $513,968.81 |
| 2025-12-19 | 278 | $66.96 | $18,614.88 |
| 2025-12-16 | 300 | $65.88 | $19,764 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MOS | 0.475 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| FMC | 0.423 | 0.453 | Moderate |
| LIN | 0.407 | 0.400 | Moderate |
| EMN | 0.403 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| LYB | 0.390 | 0.403 | Moderate |
| CF | 0.385 | 0.455 | Moderate |
| DE | 0.367 | 0.326 | Moderate |
| CE | 0.366 | 0.381 | Moderate |
| TROW | 0.362 | 0.434 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CTVA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.