Dollar General Corporation (DG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.1x earnings — a 50% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — DG is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.5. DCF fair value of $618 implies 418% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for Dollar General Corporation is currently constrained, evidenced by an ROIC of 5.6% that trails the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) at 5.9%, resulting in a negative spread of -0.3%. Despite this inefficiency in value creation relative to financing costs, equity returns are supported by high leverage rather than operational excellence; the DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 15.2% driven primarily by an equity multiplier of 4.2x, while net margins remain thin at 2.8%. Fundamental stability metrics present a mixed picture: the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial health, yet the Altman Z-Score of 2.4 indicates proximity to distress thresholds, whereas the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.65 signals low earnings manipulation risk and high reporting credibility.
Valuation metrics display a significant divergence between current market pricing and discounted cash flow models. Trading at 17.5x forward earnings, the stock is priced substantially below the sector average of 34.4x, suggesting a deep discount relative to peers in the consumer defensive space. However, this valuation gap appears anchored by pessimistic growth assumptions embedded within the DCF framework; with an implied free cash flow decline rate of -9% over ten years and a fair value calculation yielding only $937 against current levels, the model reflects minimal expectations for future expansion rather than inherent undervaluation based on quality.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis through factor exposure and insider behavior. The stock exhibits a growth tilt with a negative HML value of -0.147, contrasting its defensive sector classification, while profitability alpha is neutral at 0.004 despite a positive Fama-French annualized alpha of 0.46%. With no significant insider buying or selling activity over the past ninety days ($0 flow), there is little internal signal to corroborate either bullish or bearish sentiment regarding future operational trajectories.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $708 | $512 | $360 |
| 3% | $927 | $618 | $409 |
| 4% | $1365 | $786 | $476 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $106.27.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $618 (+418.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 24% below its 5-year average P/E of 22.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDollar General Corporation is currently trading at $106.23, a price point that exists within the broader context of consumer defensive sector dynamics where institutional positioning often shifts based on macroeconomic stability signals rather than pure growth narratives. The absence of specific moving average crossover data or volume trend metrics in the provided snapshot prevents a definitive assessment of whether larger market participants are actively accumulating shares through aggressive buying or gradually reducing exposure via systematic selling. Without visible confirmation that price action is decisively breaching key support levels with accompanying high-volume participation, it remains ambiguous if institutional capital views this valuation as an attractive entry point for long-term holdings or merely a neutral holding zone during periods of sector rotation. In the absence of concrete technical indicators such as short-term moving average crossovers or significant volume spikes relative to historical averages, one cannot infer whether sophisticated traders are building substantial positions anticipating future upside or unwinding stakes due to potential downside risks inherent in discretionary retail spending patterns. The current market price sits independently without immediate contextual data on trend strength or momentum shifts that typically accompany institutional consensus changes. Consequently, the technical landscape appears static regarding large-cap player behavior until further price movement is accompanied by corroborating volume analysis, leaving the interpretation of whether this level represents a strategic accumulation zone for defensive portfolios or a distribution area open to varied professional assessments depending on broader economic forecasts.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-06 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-07 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-08 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-08 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-07 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-08 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-09 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-08 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-08 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-10 | $0.5900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or XRT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DG shares regardless of Dollar General Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to DG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Dollar General Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Dollar General Corporation (DG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 39 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 4 DG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Dollar General Corporation (DG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 1.0% of the XRT (XRT). Across 39 tracked ETFs, approximately 50M shares (22.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest DG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 39 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Dollar General Corporation over the past year sits near $112.18 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $106.27 sits 5.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Dollar General Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Dollar General Corporation converts 74% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 537 | $101.75 | $54,639.75 |
| 2026-04-20 | 200 | $126.68 | $25,336 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2 | $123.47 | $246.94 |
| 2026-04-14 | 600 | $119.26 | $71,556 |
| 2026-04-10 | 594 | $119.75 | $71,131.5 |
| 2026-04-06 | 10,000 | $119.74 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-01 | 2,169 | $118.73 | $257,525.37 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,855 | $119.23 | $340,401.65 |
| 2026-03-26 | 5,302 | $119.55 | $633,854.1 |
| 2026-03-25 | 22 | $117.88 | $2,593.36 |
| 2026-03-23 | 53,490 | $124.52 | $6.7M |
| 2026-03-12 | 7 | $144.84 | $1,013.88 |
| 2026-03-10 | 767 | $145.52 | $111,613.84 |
| 2026-03-06 | 361 | $146.55 | $52,904.55 |
| 2026-03-05 | 361 | $151.60 | $54,727.6 |
| 2026-03-02 | 4,190 | $156.24 | $654,645.6 |
| 2026-02-23 | 443 | $150.64 | $66,733.52 |
| 2026-02-17 | 2,628 | $153.84 | $404,291.52 |
| 2026-02-09 | 100 | $146.65 | $14,665 |
| 2026-02-04 | 6 | $148.04 | $888.24 |
| 2026-01-26 | 800 | $146.92 | $117,536 |
| 2026-01-20 | 55,299 | $148.74 | $8.2M |
| 2026-01-12 | 1,000 | $142.74 | $142,740 |
| 2026-01-06 | 849 | $138.93 | $117,951.57 |
| 2025-12-29 | 963 | $137.84 | $132,739.92 |
| 2025-12-23 | 385 | $137.52 | $52,945.2 |
| 2025-12-22 | 32,100 | $137.28 | $4.4M |
| 2025-12-19 | 1,432 | $136.68 | $195,725.76 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2,700 | $133.21 | $359,667 |
| 2025-12-08 | 12,083 | $132.37 | $1.6M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DLTR | 0.546 | 0.583 | Moderate |
| TSCO | 0.336 | 0.369 | Moderate |
| MCD | 0.315 | 0.354 | Moderate |
| FERG | 0.304 | 0.166 | Moderate |
| WMT | 0.278 | 0.352 | Low correlation |
| HD | 0.263 | 0.327 | Low correlation |
| CLX | 0.262 | 0.342 | Low correlation |
| WWD | 0.253 | 0.292 | Low correlation |
| EL | 0.253 | 0.347 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.