D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.8x earnings — a 60% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — DHI is in the lower valuation range. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. DCF fair value of $199 implies 38% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of D.R. Horton, Inc. present a dichotomy between operational profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that a 14.5% ROE is driven primarily by robust net margins (10.5%) rather than asset turnover or leverage, this strength is counterbalanced by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -1.8%, indicating value destruction when accounting for the cost of capital. This inefficiency aligns with a low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 and recent revenue contraction of -6.9% YoY, suggesting deteriorating financial health despite an Altman Z-Score of 6.0 that currently signals solvency safety. The Beneish M-Score of -2.36 supports the integrity of these earnings figures, ruling out aggressive accounting manipulation as a primary driver for current results.
Valuation metrics suggest significant market dislocation relative to intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E multiple of 12.7x versus a sector average of 57.0x, the stock is priced at a steep discount that implies minimal growth expectations despite an implied free cash flow growth rate of 9.8% over ten years used in DCF modeling. The resulting fair value estimate of $205 indicates approximately 49.3% upside potential based on discounted cash flows, highlighting a substantial gap between current market pricing and model-derived worth. This divergence suggests the market may be overly penalizing recent revenue headwinds without fully incorporating the underlying profitability mechanics or long-term growth assumptions embedded in the valuation framework.
Risk factor analysis reveals conflicting signals regarding future performance drivers. The stock exhibits strong exposure to value factors, evidenced by a Profitability Factor (RMW) of 0.757, yet it carries a negative Value Factor (HML) tilt of -0.103 and an annual Fama-French Alpha of 13.55%, which complicates its classification within traditional factor-based portfolios. Furthermore, insider activity over the last ninety days shows $43,563 in net selling, introducing a layer of caution regarding management's immediate outlook despite the attractive valuation metrics derived from fundamental analysis.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.4% | 12.4% | 14.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $235 | $184 | $149 |
| 3% | $261 | $199 | $160 |
| 4% | $296 | $219 | $172 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $147.91.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $199 (+38.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 13% below its 5-year average P/E of 14.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedD.R. Horton, Inc. is currently trading at $137.49 within the Consumer Cyclical sector, presenting a specific technical configuration regarding its price action relative to moving averages and short-term momentum indicators. The immediate analysis focuses on whether the current valuation sits above or below key trend lines, which serves as a primary gauge for directional bias in this cyclical exposure. While precise numerical values for these averages are not provided here, their relationship with the $137.49 price point would define if the asset is exhibiting bullish strength or potential correctionary pressure. Complementing this structural view, the Relative Strength Index offers critical insight into short-term momentum dynamics without dictating future price direction. If the RSI readings suggest values approaching overbought territory, it may indicate a temporary exhaustion of upward velocity, whereas levels in oversold zones could signal a potential pause or reversal in downward pressure. The convergence of these factors—price positioning against moving averages and the specific state of momentum oscillators—creates a composite picture that market participants might analyze to assess the prevailing trend's sustainability. Ultimately, this technical snapshot highlights the interplay between established trends and immediate velocity, allowing observers to evaluate whether DHI is in an expansionary or contractionary phase based on these synthesized metrics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.4500 | +12.5% |
| 2025-08-07 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-02 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-12 | $0.4000 | +33.3% |
| 2024-08-01 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-01 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-05 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-20 | $0.3000 | +20.0% |
| 2023-08-04 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DHI shares regardless of D.R. Horton, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to DHI through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in D.R. Horton, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DHI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DHI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 DHI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.9% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 40M shares (14.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DHI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DHI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for D.R. Horton, Inc. over the past year sits near $146.57 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $147.91 trades 0.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DHI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does D.R. Horton, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
D.R. Horton, Inc. converts 73% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 11,637 | $144.96 | $1.7M |
| 2026-05-01 | 36 | $153.86 | $5,538.96 |
| 2026-04-28 | 4,278 | $159.33 | $681,613.74 |
| 2026-04-27 | 97 | $159.90 | $15,510.3 |
| 2026-04-20 | 500 | $149.81 | $74,905 |
| 2026-04-17 | 265 | $143.35 | $37,987.75 |
| 2026-04-16 | 3 | $144.20 | $432.6 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $145.25 | $435.75 |
| 2026-04-10 | 302 | $143.74 | $43,409.48 |
| 2026-04-09 | 611 | $142.68 | $87,177.48 |
| 2026-04-07 | 81 | $141.72 | $11,479.32 |
| 2026-04-02 | 773 | $138.25 | $106,867.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 190 | $138.33 | $26,282.7 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $133.12 | $798.72 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,924 | $137.98 | $265,473.52 |
| 2026-03-18 | 9,735 | $142.14 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-16 | 31,216 | $140.49 | $4.4M |
| 2026-03-13 | 31,216 | $139.04 | $4.3M |
| 2026-03-12 | 34,318 | $142.67 | $4.9M |
| 2026-03-09 | 4,768 | $147.26 | $702,135.68 |
| 2026-03-05 | 10,586 | $152.70 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-27 | 64 | $158.97 | $10,174.08 |
| 2026-02-26 | 58 | $157.46 | $9,132.68 |
| 2026-02-25 | 5,282 | $163.95 | $865,983.9 |
| 2026-02-18 | 148 | $166.29 | $24,610.92 |
| 2026-02-17 | 339 | $167.78 | $56,877.42 |
| 2026-02-13 | 361 | $164.59 | $59,416.99 |
| 2026-02-09 | 37 | $156.27 | $5,781.99 |
| 2026-02-06 | 135 | $158.13 | $21,347.55 |
| 2026-01-30 | 86 | $150.42 | $12,936.12 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PHM | 0.919 | 0.889 | High co-movement |
| KBH | 0.878 | 0.865 | High co-movement |
| LEN | 0.877 | 0.860 | High co-movement |
| TMHC | 0.859 | 0.823 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.854 | 0.859 | High co-movement |
| TOL | 0.851 | 0.807 | High co-movement |
| NVR | 0.797 | 0.674 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.709 | 0.740 | High co-movement |
| LOW | 0.652 | 0.688 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DHI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.