Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 26.1x earnings — a 60% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — GRMN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 17.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $231 implies 12% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of GRMN demonstrate a robust capital allocation profile, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +5.3%, indicating the firm generates returns exceeding its cost of capital. This 18.5% ROE is primarily driven by exceptional net margins at 23.0% rather than asset turnover or leverage, as confirmed by the DuPont decomposition showing a low equity multiplier of 1.23x and moderate turnover of 0.66x. Financial integrity appears strong with high Piotroski F-Score (7/9) and Altman Z-Score (16.5), while the negative Beneish M-Score (-2.24) suggests low earnings manipulation risk, all supported by consistent revenue growth of 15.1% YoY.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where the current P/E of 27.7x sits at a premium relative to implied sustainable rates given the DCF fair value estimate and minimal upside potential of just 1.1%. The market appears pricing in aggressive future cash flow expansion, reflected in an assumed ten-year FCF growth rate of 14.8%, which aligns closely with historical performance but leaves little margin for error if execution falters. While the stock exhibits a strong Profitability Factor (RMW) alpha of 0.105 and significant positive Fama-French Alpha (20.87%), these quality signals are currently outweighed by the narrow valuation gap between intrinsic value and market price.
Recent insider activity introduces a notable divergence from the otherwise favorable fundamental data, with $11.5 million in net selling over the last 90 days potentially signaling management caution regarding near-term liquidity or future guidance despite the strong balance sheet metrics. The neutral Value Factor (HML) of 0.084 indicates the stock is not trading at a deep discount relative to value peers, suggesting that current pricing may already reflect its high-quality attributes without offering significant downside protection against potential growth deceleration or insider-driven sentiment shifts.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 15% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $275 | $210 | $170 |
| 3% | $314 | $231 | $182 |
| 4% | $369 | $258 | $197 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $241.03.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $231 (-11.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 60% above its 5-year average P/E of 18.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedGarmin Ltd. is currently trading at $239.78, a level that warrants examination against its surrounding moving average envelope to assess relative valuation and potential mean-reversion dynamics. When the current price sits near the outer boundaries of this statistical channel, it often signals an extended deviation from recent historical norms, suggesting that market forces may be working toward a corrective pullback toward the central trend line. Conversely, if the share price is nestled comfortably within the middle band of the envelope, it indicates alignment with the prevailing medium-term trajectory and reduced immediate pressure for significant volatility in either direction. The specific positioning relative to these dynamic support and resistance levels provides context for understanding whether the asset is currently overextended or fairly valued compared to its recent performance history. In this sector-specific environment, such structural observations highlight how price action interacts with long-term averages rather than dictating a definitive outcome. A proximity to the upper band might imply that corrective selling pressure could emerge if momentum wanes, while closeness to the lower boundary may suggest latent buying interest as prices approach historical support zones defined by the moving average structure. These technical relationships serve as objective markers for analyzing market behavior without assigning directional intent or predicting future price targets beyond what the current statistical arrangement dictates.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-12 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.9000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-16 | $0.9000 | +20.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-17 | $0.7500 | +2.7% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-16 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOT or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GRMN shares regardless of Garmin Ltd.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to GRMN through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Garmin Ltd. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GRMN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 19 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GRMN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 GRMN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the VOT (VOT) and 0.9% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 19 tracked ETFs, approximately 20M shares (10.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GRMN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GRMN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Garmin Ltd. over the past year sits near $200.57 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $241.03 trades 20.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GRMN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Garmin Ltd. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Garmin Ltd. converts 66% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 731 | $236.97 | $173,225.07 |
| 2026-05-07 | 17 | $242.82 | $4,127.94 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,155 | $267.42 | $576,290.1 |
| 2026-04-02 | 1,859 | $237.57 | $441,642.63 |
| 2026-03-26 | 2 | $244.78 | $489.56 |
| 2026-03-25 | 17 | $241.11 | $4,098.87 |
| 2026-03-17 | 396 | $234.83 | $92,992.68 |
| 2026-03-10 | 303 | $242.63 | $73,516.89 |
| 2026-02-27 | 4,290 | $254.16 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-19 | 146 | $237.46 | $34,669.16 |
| 2026-02-17 | 143 | $214.74 | $30,707.82 |
| 2026-02-12 | 500 | $206.58 | $103,290 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2,758 | $210.68 | $581,055.44 |
| 2025-12-22 | 8,700 | $201.62 | $1.8M |
| 2025-11-12 | 81 | $199.66 | $16,172.46 |
| 2025-11-04 | 8,771 | $210.54 | $1.8M |
| 2025-10-24 | 175 | $250.17 | $43,779.75 |
| 2025-10-15 | 536 | $249.33 | $133,640.88 |
| 2025-10-14 | 544 | $251.34 | $136,728.96 |
| 2025-10-10 | 19 | $256.50 | $4,873.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BLK | 0.512 | 0.484 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.507 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.506 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| SW | 0.498 | 0.521 | Moderate |
| JLL | 0.497 | 0.488 | Moderate |
| BEN | 0.496 | 0.482 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.489 | 0.479 | Moderate |
| GEHC | 0.486 | 0.471 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.485 | 0.473 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GRMN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.