Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 23.1x earnings — a 64% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — HSIC is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 2.7. DCF fair value of $130 implies 71% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Henry Schein, Inc. reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 6.8% falls short against an estimated cost of equity of 8.8%, resulting in a negative spread that suggests value destruction over time. Despite this efficiency drag, earnings per share are supported by significant financial leverage rather than operational intensity; the DuPont decomposition shows asset turnover at merely 1.18x and net margins compressed to 3.0%, with the equity multiplier of 2.34x acting as the primary driver for an ROE of 8.3%. Creditworthiness metrics present a mixed picture: while the Beneish M-Score of -2.53 indicates low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 2.8 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signal moderate financial distress and limited fundamental strength relative to peers.
Valuation dynamics suggest the market is pricing in substantial growth expectations that may diverge from current operational realities. Trading at a forward P/E of 23.0x, the stock commands roughly half the multiple of its sector average of 37.0x, yet discounting future cash flows based on an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of only 5.0% yields a fair value significantly higher than current prices. This wide discrepancy between the DCF-derived upside and the modest growth assumptions highlights a potential mispricing or a market premium for specific non-quantitative factors not captured in standard models, as the profitability factor (RMW) remains robust at 0.482 despite the low margin environment.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics indicate strong alpha generation relative to style factors, with an annual Fama-French Alpha of 2.79% and positive exposure to the profitability factor, though value tilt is neutral given a slight negative HML score of -0.095. However, insider activity over the preceding ninety days shows net selling totaling $8.57 million, which warrants scrutiny alongside the weak ROIC-WACC spread and sub-par Piotroski score. The convergence of deteriorating capital efficiency metrics with strong relative alpha creates a complex risk/reward profile where superior stock-specific returns coexist with structural operational headwinds and insider distribution signals.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7% | 9% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $168 | $112 | $81 |
| 3% | $210 | $130 | $91 |
| 4% | $279 | $156 | $103 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $76.04.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $130 (+71.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 11% above its 5-year average P/E of 20.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical landscape for Henry Schein, Inc. suggests a period of consolidation where institutional positioning remains ambiguous without further confirmation from broader market participants. The stock's proximity to the $73.50 level indicates that larger players may be accumulating or distributing shares within a tight range, as evidenced by the lack of decisive directional momentum in recent price action. While specific moving average crossovers are not explicitly detailed here, the stability around this price point often reflects institutions waiting for clearer trend validation before committing significant capital to either side of the market. Volume trends during such consolidation phases typically reveal whether institutional interest is building up silently or if major holders are reducing their exposure. If trading activity remains subdued while prices hover near support levels, it could imply that large entities are defending a position rather than aggressively entering new ones. Conversely, any sudden spike in volume without corresponding price breakout might signal distribution by sophisticated traders looking to exit holdings before a potential downturn. The absence of strong upward or downward pressure suggests that institutional sentiment is currently neutral, awaiting catalysts such as sector-wide shifts in healthcare policy or company-specific earnings reports to trigger a definitive move.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or ONEV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HSIC shares regardless of Henry Schein, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $881M of passive capital is structurally linked to HSIC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HSIC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Henry Schein, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies HUMANA INC (HUM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with HSIC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 19 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HSIC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 HSIC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.7% of the XHS (XHS) and 0.3% of the ONEV (ONEV). Across 19 tracked ETFs, approximately 13M shares (11.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HSIC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HSIC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Henry Schein, Inc. over the past year sits near $73.57 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $76.04 trades 3.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HSIC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Henry Schein, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Henry Schein, Inc. converts 54% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1 | $69.45 | $69.45 |
| 2026-05-13 | 9 | $69.35 | $624.15 |
| 2026-05-12 | 3 | $68.99 | $206.97 |
| 2026-05-07 | 8,731 | $72.44 | $632,473.64 |
| 2026-05-06 | 76 | $74.37 | $5,652.12 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,447 | $73.93 | $106,976.71 |
| 2026-04-29 | 824 | $76.12 | $62,722.88 |
| 2026-04-28 | 185 | $77.20 | $14,282 |
| 2026-04-27 | 388 | $77.54 | $30,085.52 |
| 2026-04-24 | 339 | $78.22 | $26,516.58 |
| 2026-04-23 | 42 | $78.11 | $3,280.62 |
| 2026-04-20 | 139 | $78.83 | $10,957.37 |
| 2026-04-17 | 36,159 | $77.21 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-15 | 343 | $77.20 | $26,479.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | 9,989 | $75.62 | $755,368.18 |
| 2026-04-09 | 292 | $75.53 | $22,054.76 |
| 2026-04-08 | 91,026 | $73.85 | $6.7M |
| 2026-04-07 | 91,239 | $74.86 | $6.8M |
| 2026-04-06 | 269,175 | $73.94 | $19.9M |
| 2026-04-02 | 5,882 | $73.04 | $429,621.28 |
| 2026-04-01 | 22,212 | $73.70 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-31 | 21,359 | $72.70 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-30 | 14,939 | $72.10 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-26 | 46,062 | $74.25 | $3.4M |
| 2026-03-25 | 47,814 | $74.02 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-24 | 65,372 | $74.46 | $4.9M |
| 2026-03-20 | 466 | $72.68 | $33,868.88 |
| 2026-03-19 | 26,290 | $73.12 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-18 | 24,081 | $74.87 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-17 | 88,900 | $74.61 | $6.6M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| XRAY | 0.547 | 0.479 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.511 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.479 | 0.434 | Moderate |
| WAT | 0.477 | 0.399 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.471 | 0.402 | Moderate |
| MTD | 0.463 | 0.358 | Moderate |
| PCAR | 0.456 | 0.379 | Moderate |
| YUM | 0.448 | 0.515 | Moderate |
| CSL | 0.444 | 0.422 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HSIC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.