Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicNFLX trades at 27.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.1x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 11.8. DCF fair value of $41 implies 61% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -2.16 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedNetflix demonstrates robust capital efficiency with an ROIC-WACC spread of 9.0%, indicating value creation that exceeds its cost of capital, while a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Altman Z-Score of 11.1 suggest solid financial stability absent significant distress signals. The equity return is driven primarily by high net margins at 24.3% rather than asset turnover or leverage, evidenced by the DuPont decomposition where margin expansion outweighs a modest 0.81x asset turnover and an equity multiplier of 2.09x. Beneish M-Score metrics further reinforce earnings quality with a score of -2.16, yet profitability factor exposure remains negative at -0.562, hinting that recent performance may not be sustaining historical high-water marks for the broader style factor.
Despite these operational fundamentals, valuation multiples reflect aggressive growth expectations rather than current yield profiles. The stock trades at 39.0x forward earnings, significantly above the sector average of 27.3x, implying the market prices in sustained acceleration that exceeds the DCF model's fair value estimate of $40. This divergence suggests a substantial discount relative to intrinsic value calculations if future cash flow growth decelerates from its implied 10-year trajectory of 28.8%. The Fama-French alpha of -8.60% annually indicates the stock has underperformed when adjusted for size, value, and profitability factors over time, aligning with a pronounced tilt toward high-growth characteristics that have historically commanded higher risk premiums but delivered mixed returns in recent periods.
Insider activity presents a notable counterweight to public sentiment, as $137 million in net selling over the last 90 days signals significant distribution by those closest to operational realities. While this flow does not definitively alter fundamental economics, it introduces an asymmetry where management's liquidity decisions contrast with retail positioning at elevated valuations. The combination of negative alpha exposure and heavy insider outflows suggests a risk-reward profile that heavily favors downside protection if growth assumptions fail to materialize at the current multiple, leaving investors exposed to potential mean reversion in both pricing and profitability factors.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12.7% | 14.7% | 16.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $47 | $38 | $32 |
| 3% | $50 | $41 | $34 |
| 4% | $55 | $44 | $36 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $83.33.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $41 (-60.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 1% below its 5-year average P/E of 41.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedNetflix's current price of $94.92 is trading above its 50-day simple moving average but below the longer-term 200-day SMA, suggesting a recent uptick in short-term momentum while still recovering from a broader downtrend. The RSI reading at 61.9 indicates that the stock has been experiencing strong upward price movement over the past 14 days, though it's not yet considered overbought as readings above 70 typically signal this condition.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like FDN or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NFLX shares regardless of Netflix, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $51.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to NFLX through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Netflix, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with NFLX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NFLX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 NFLX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.8% of the FDN (FDN) and 5.2% of the VOX (VOX). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 571M shares (13.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest NFLX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NFLX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Netflix, Inc. over the past year sits near $94.22 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $83.33 sits 11.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NFLX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Netflix, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Netflix, Inc. converts 31% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 69% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 9.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 32 | $87.56 | $2,801.92 |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,844 | $87.66 | $161,645.04 |
| 2026-05-12 | 21,228 | $85.45 | $1.8M |
| 2026-05-11 | 96,568 | $87.49 | $8.4M |
| 2026-05-08 | 49,656 | $88.25 | $4.4M |
| 2026-05-07 | 5,552 | $88.27 | $490,075.04 |
| 2026-05-06 | 692,091 | $87.89 | $60.8M |
| 2026-05-04 | 202 | $92.06 | $18,596.12 |
| 2026-05-01 | 45,127 | $93.61 | $4.2M |
| 2026-04-28 | 2,606 | $91.37 | $238,110.22 |
| 2026-04-27 | 25,322 | $92.44 | $2.3M |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,222 | $92.82 | $113,426.04 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,721 | $93.24 | $253,706.04 |
| 2026-04-22 | 53 | $92.58 | $4,906.74 |
| 2026-04-20 | 114,534 | $97.31 | $11.1M |
| 2026-04-17 | 4 | $107.79 | $431.16 |
| 2026-04-16 | 4,145 | $107.71 | $446,457.95 |
| 2026-04-15 | 4,551 | $106.28 | $483,680.28 |
| 2026-04-14 | 107,745 | $103.16 | $11.1M |
| 2026-04-13 | 18,800 | $103.01 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-09 | 4,327 | $99.39 | $430,060.53 |
| 2026-04-08 | 658 | $98.82 | $65,023.56 |
| 2026-04-07 | 1,547 | $98.93 | $153,044.71 |
| 2026-04-06 | 38,209 | $98.66 | $3.8M |
| 2026-04-02 | 22,128 | $95.55 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-01 | 8,106 | $96.15 | $779,391.9 |
| 2026-03-31 | 4,330 | $92.97 | $402,560.1 |
| 2026-03-30 | 3,145 | $93.43 | $293,837.35 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,520 | $93.32 | $235,166.4 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,063 | $92.28 | $98,093.64 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ADSK | 0.290 | 0.358 | Low correlation |
| DELL | 0.288 | 0.344 | Low correlation |
| INTU | 0.283 | 0.285 | Low correlation |
| XYZ | 0.278 | 0.430 | Low correlation |
| NDAQ | 0.266 | 0.222 | Low correlation |
| RBLX | 0.263 | 0.209 | Low correlation |
| PYPL | 0.255 | 0.297 | Low correlation |
| ICE | 0.250 | 0.208 | Low correlation |
| TTWO | 0.249 | 0.282 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NFLX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.