NVR, Inc. (NVR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 14.9x earnings — a 57% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — NVR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 13.2. DCF fair value of $531 implies 92% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -2.07 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of NVR, Inc. exhibit a stark divergence between capital efficiency and current earnings trajectory. The company generates substantial value creation with an ROIC-WACC spread of 17.9%, driven primarily by high asset turnover (1.77x) rather than margin expansion or leverage, as evidenced by the DuPont decomposition where net margins sit at 13.0% against a sector-leading profitability factor score of 0.912. Financial distress metrics are robust with an Altman Z-Score of 13.1 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.07, indicating low earnings manipulation risk, yet the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals moderate financial health amid recent revenue contraction of 1.9% year-over-year. This operational profile suggests a mature business model where growth has stalled despite maintaining exceptional capital returns on invested equity.
Valuation metrics present a significant discrepancy between current market pricing and discounted cash flow models, creating an ambiguous risk/reward landscape. Trading at 15.3x earnings compared to the sector average of 42.1x implies the market is heavily discounting future prospects relative to peers, yet this compression conflicts with DCF fair value calculations which suggest a -91.8% downside from current levels based on an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 34.3%. The negative Fama-French alpha of -6.82% over the annual period and a Value Factor (HML) score of -0.223 further indicate that the stock has underperformed both value and risk-adjusted benchmarks, reflecting persistent investor skepticism regarding its ability to sustain high growth rates despite robust profitability characteristics.
Recent insider activity adds another layer of caution to the investment thesis, with $9 million in net selling over the past 90 days potentially signaling management's view on near-term headwinds or valuation concerns not yet fully reflected in public disclosures. While the company possesses a fortress-like balance sheet and superior return metrics relative to its cost of capital, the combination of shrinking top-line revenue, negative alpha performance, and insider outflows suggests that current pricing may already incorporate pessimistic assumptions about future scalability. The market appears to be penalizing the lack of recent growth momentum more heavily than it rewards the underlying operational efficiency and low distress probability.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $613 | $494 | $417 |
| 3% | $681 | $531 | $440 |
| 4% | $775 | $578 | $467 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $6180.96.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $531 (-92.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 86% below its 5-year average P/E of 106.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedNVR's current price is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a recent decline in the stock. The RSI reading of 22.9 suggests that NVR may be experiencing low momentum or potentially oversold conditions in the short term.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1990-02-23 | $0.1670 | -27.4% |
| 1989-10-26 | $0.2300 | +3.6% |
| 1989-07-26 | $0.2220 | +9.9% |
| 1989-04-19 | $0.2020 | +5.2% |
| 1989-02-16 | $0.1920 | +47.7% |
| 1988-11-08 | $0.1300 | +4.0% |
| 1988-07-26 | $0.1250 | +56.3% |
| 1988-03-25 | $0.0800 | -46.7% |
| 1987-12-24 | $0.1500 | +78.6% |
| 1987-09-25 | $0.0840 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHB or ONEV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NVR shares regardless of NVR, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to NVR through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in NVR, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If NVR, Inc. (NVR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with NVR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NVR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 NVR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
NVR, Inc. (NVR) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the XHB (XHB) and 0.6% of the ONEV (ONEV). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 0M shares (15.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest NVR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NVR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for NVR, Inc. over the past year sits near $7605.17 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $6180.96 sits 18.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NVR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does NVR, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
NVR, Inc. converts 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 17.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 409 | $6750.04 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-06 | 132 | $6663.14 | $879,534.48 |
| 2026-04-02 | 91 | $6664.19 | $606,441.29 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1 | $6369.38 | $6,369.38 |
| 2026-02-04 | 11 | $7770.86 | $85,479.46 |
| 2026-01-28 | 1 | $7499.76 | $7,499.76 |
| 2026-01-27 | 3 | $7664.48 | $22,993.44 |
| 2026-01-09 | 18 | $7385.58 | $132,940.44 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2 | $7399.71 | $14,799.42 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1 | $7504.37 | $7,504.37 |
| 2025-10-21 | 48 | $7681.08 | $368,691.84 |
| 2025-10-14 | 53 | $7584.90 | $401,999.7 |
| 2025-10-10 | 1,129 | $7619.24 | $8.6M |
| 2025-10-02 | 4 | $8036.48 | $32,145.92 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DHI | 0.797 | 0.674 | High co-movement |
| PHM | 0.783 | 0.653 | High co-movement |
| KBH | 0.766 | 0.648 | High co-movement |
| LEN | 0.754 | 0.605 | High co-movement |
| TOL | 0.754 | 0.614 | High co-movement |
| MTH | 0.751 | 0.608 | High co-movement |
| TMHC | 0.750 | 0.598 | High co-movement |
| BLDR | 0.707 | 0.640 | High co-movement |
| MAS | 0.688 | 0.670 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NVR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.