PG&E Corporation (PCG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.7x earnings — a 48% discount to the sector average of 24.4x — PCG is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 0.5.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of PCG reveal a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 3.4% significantly underperforms the estimated cost of equity at 5.1%, creating a negative spread that erodes shareholder value over time. Despite this drag, earnings per share are supported by high leverage and moderate asset turnover rather than operational efficiency; the DuPont decomposition shows an ROE of 8.2% driven primarily by an equity multiplier of 4.32x, while net margins sit at a respectable 10.8%. This reliance on financial engineering is corroborated by a weak profitability factor score of -0.225 and an Altman Z-Score of 0.5, which signals elevated distress risk despite a moderate Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 and a clean Beneish M-Score suggesting low earnings manipulation likelihood.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where the current P/E of 15.1x appears compressed relative to historical norms but trades at a premium compared to the sector average, implying the market may be pricing in stability that is not reflected in the underlying capital efficiency. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests fair value is constrained by the inability to generate returns above the cost of debt and equity, with implied growth rates failing to justify the multiple given the sluggish 2.1% revenue expansion year-over-year. The negative Fama-French alpha of -0.97% annually further indicates that recent performance has lagged behind a standard market benchmark adjusted for size, value, and profitability characteristics.
Risk factors are amplified by significant insider activity over the last ninety days, with net selling totaling $3.1 million, which often precedes downward revisions in analyst expectations or strategic shifts not yet visible in public filings. The combination of negative capital spreads, distress indicators, and active insider distribution creates a risk-reward profile where downside protection is limited while upside potential remains capped by the structural inability to improve ROIC without substantial margin expansion or deleveraging. Investors must weigh whether current pricing adequately compensates for these fundamental headwinds versus any latent catalysts that could reverse the negative alpha trajectory.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 0% above its 5-year average P/E of 15.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.0500 | +100.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.0250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.0250 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.0250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.0250 | +150.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.0100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.0100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.0100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.0100 | -98.1% |
| 2017-09-28 | $0.5300 | 0.0% |
| 2017-06-28 | $0.5300 | +8.2% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell PCG shares regardless of PG&E Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to PCG through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in PG&E Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If PG&E Corporation (PCG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with PCG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 25 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
PCG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 PCG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
PG&E Corporation (PCG) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 2.3% of the VPU (VPU). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 345M shares (15.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest PCG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
PCG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for PG&E Corporation over the past year sits near $14.94 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $16.57 trades 10.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
PCG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does PG&E Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
PG&E Corporation converts -30% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 130% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 11,745 | $17.56 | $206,242.2 |
| 2026-03-27 | 258 | $17.37 | $4,481.46 |
| 2026-03-26 | 359,849 | $17.44 | $6.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 219 | $17.34 | $3,797.46 |
| 2026-03-23 | 5,308 | $17.32 | $91,934.56 |
| 2026-03-19 | 9,610 | $18.17 | $174,613.7 |
| 2026-03-17 | 18,214 | $18.45 | $336,048.3 |
| 2026-03-16 | 1,519 | $18.14 | $27,554.66 |
| 2026-02-19 | 11 | $17.88 | $196.68 |
| 2026-02-18 | 3,879 | $18.02 | $69,899.58 |
| 2026-02-17 | 500 | $18.16 | $9,080 |
| 2026-02-10 | 81 | $16.35 | $1,324.35 |
| 2026-01-05 | 36 | $16.27 | $585.72 |
| 2026-01-02 | 1,120 | $16.07 | $17,998.4 |
| 2025-12-17 | 82,177 | $15.27 | $1.3M |
| 2025-12-12 | 6,687 | $14.83 | $99,168.21 |
| 2025-12-11 | 6,658 | $15.08 | $100,402.64 |
| 2025-12-09 | 6,650 | $14.94 | $99,351 |
| 2025-11-12 | 51,046 | $16.59 | $846,853.14 |
| 2025-11-04 | 257 | $15.91 | $4,088.87 |
| 2025-10-15 | 342 | $16.40 | $5,608.8 |
| 2025-10-14 | 169,343 | $15.97 | $2.7M |
| 2025-10-10 | 70,305 | $16.24 | $1.1M |
| 2025-10-07 | 237,243 | $16.04 | $3.8M |
| 2025-10-06 | 175 | $15.90 | $2,782.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EIX | 0.788 | 0.777 | High co-movement |
| SRE | 0.612 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.521 | 0.650 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.520 | 0.576 | Moderate |
| ATO | 0.488 | 0.616 | Moderate |
| FE | 0.487 | 0.516 | Moderate |
| XEL | 0.476 | 0.588 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.471 | 0.580 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.459 | 0.517 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare PCG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.