Cencora, Inc. (COR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.7x earnings — a 68% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — COR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.8. DCF fair value of $333 suggests 4% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation profile reveals a company generating an ROIC-WACC spread of +2.9%, indicating modest value creation relative to its cost of capital, despite a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggesting moderate financial strength rather than robust improvement. The DuPont decomposition exposes a highly leveraged engine driving an 89.0% ROE; this return is not fueled by operational efficiency or pricing power but entirely by extreme leverage, evidenced by an equity multiplier of 43.84x that compresses net margins to just 0.5%. While the Altman Z-Score of 4.8 and negative Beneish M-Score of -2.54 signal low distress probability and limited earnings manipulation risk respectively, the razor-thin operating leverage leaves profitability highly sensitive to revenue fluctuations, even as top-line growth remains healthy at 9.3% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between intrinsic value models and current market pricing, with the stock trading at a premium P/E of 39.1x compared to its implied fair value derived from DCF analysis. The model prices in aggressive long-term free cash flow growth averaging 8.7% over the next decade, resulting in an upside potential calculated at $359 per share and a theoretical gain of 14.3%. However, this valuation premium assumes sustained execution that must justify the current multiple given the company's reliance on financial leverage rather than margin expansion or asset turnover efficiency to generate returns.
Risk-adjusted performance data indicates significant idiosyncratic alpha generation with an annual Fama-French Alpha of 22.13%, outperforming standard factor benchmarks, yet this is counterbalanced by a distinct value tilt (HML: 0.207) and neutral profitability exposure. The risk picture further deteriorates when examining insider dynamics, which show $3,637,196 in net selling over the past ninety days; such executive disposition combined with high leverage warrants close monitoring of capital structure stability against potential market downturns that could rapidly erode equity value due to limited operational buffers.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.7% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $425 | $290 | $217 |
| 3% | $527 | $333 | $240 |
| 4% | $704 | $395 | $270 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $264.84.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $333 (+4.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% below its 5-year average P/E of 43.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCencora, Inc. is currently trading at $264.75 within the healthcare sector, presenting a specific technical configuration regarding its relative valuation against moving average envelopes. At this price point, the stock's position relative to its short-term and long-term trend lines suggests it may be testing key support or resistance zones that often define mean-reversion opportunities. When a security trades near the lower boundary of an SMA envelope, historical patterns frequently indicate a potential bounce back toward the centerline if momentum shifts, whereas proximity to the upper band might signal a cooling-off period before regression occurs. The current level implies that market participants are evaluating whether this price represents a temporary deviation from the established trend or a structural shift in valuation dynamics. The absence of additional volume data or specific moving average slopes limits the precision of predicting immediate directionality, yet the static price figure invites analysis of how far removed it is from historical averages. If $264.75 sits significantly below recent mean prices, it could theoretically offer attractive entry points for those anticipating a statistical return to equilibrium; conversely, if it hovers near historical highs within the envelope structure, caution regarding overextension might be warranted. This relative positioning does not dictate future movement but rather highlights areas where price discovery often pauses before resuming its established trajectory or reversing course based on broader market sentiment and sector-specific catalysts inherent to the healthcare industry.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.6000 | +9.1% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.5500 | +7.8% |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-08 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-10 | $0.5100 | +5.2% |
| 2023-08-10 | $0.4850 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IWP or XHS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell COR shares regardless of Cencora, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to COR through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cencora, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cencora, Inc. (COR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with COR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
COR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 COR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cencora, Inc. (COR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.9% of the IWP (IWP) and 1.4% of the XHS (XHS). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 29M shares (14.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest COR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
COR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cencora, Inc. over the past year sits near $294.36 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $264.84 sits 10.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
COR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Cencora, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Cencora, Inc. converts 86% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 6,460 | $255.66 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-27 | 3,108 | $308.19 | $957,854.52 |
| 2026-04-24 | 202 | $311.39 | $62,900.78 |
| 2026-04-23 | 4,770 | $308.30 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-22 | 7,110 | $312.39 | $2.2M |
| 2026-04-06 | 8 | $324.80 | $2,598.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | 1,278 | $309.93 | $396,090.54 |
| 2026-03-26 | 4,364 | $325.08 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-25 | 19 | $327.27 | $6,218.13 |
| 2026-03-23 | 9,623 | $326.91 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-11 | 6 | $352.19 | $2,113.14 |
| 2026-03-05 | 339 | $368.19 | $124,816.41 |
| 2026-03-02 | 36 | $372.14 | $13,397.04 |
| 2026-02-24 | 727 | $366.03 | $266,103.81 |
| 2026-02-12 | 788 | $365.70 | $288,171.6 |
| 2026-02-03 | 59 | $363.56 | $21,450.04 |
| 2026-01-15 | 116 | $349.93 | $40,591.88 |
| 2025-12-29 | 682 | $341.05 | $232,596.1 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2,089 | $340.93 | $712,202.77 |
| 2025-12-17 | 900 | $341.72 | $307,548 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2 | $361.94 | $723.88 |
| 2025-11-14 | 43,587 | $365.45 | $15.9M |
| 2025-11-04 | 13,151 | $340.93 | $4.5M |
| 2025-10-31 | 15 | $341.21 | $5,118.15 |
| 2025-10-30 | 57 | $333.17 | $18,990.69 |
| 2025-10-24 | 6 | $328.56 | $1,971.36 |
| 2025-10-22 | 9 | $328.82 | $2,959.38 |
| 2025-10-21 | 221 | $327.39 | $72,353.19 |
| 2025-10-17 | 10,609 | $319.40 | $3.4M |
| 2025-10-14 | 16,041 | $317.00 | $5.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MCK | 0.760 | 0.712 | High co-movement |
| CAH | 0.671 | 0.659 | Moderate |
| WELL | 0.424 | 0.369 | Moderate |
| EVRG | 0.360 | 0.299 | Moderate |
| FE | 0.353 | 0.319 | Moderate |
| PPL | 0.344 | 0.293 | Moderate |
| BSX | 0.339 | 0.366 | Moderate |
| NI | 0.335 | 0.249 | Moderate |
| CMS | 0.329 | 0.335 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare COR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.