McKesson Corporation (MCK)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 19.3x earnings — a 70% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — MCK is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 6.1. DCF fair value of $633 implies 27% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of McKesson Corporation demonstrates a robust spread between its 27.0% return on invested capital and the estimated cost of equity, yielding a significant +20.0% margin that typically signals strong competitive moats. However, this high ROIC masks severe balance sheet distress within the DuPont decomposition; the -194.5% return on equity is driven entirely by an inverted equity multiplier of -44.36x, indicating substantial leverage or accounting complexities rather than operational profitability, which remains thin at a 0.9% net margin despite healthy asset turnover of 4.78x. While fundamental quality metrics like the Altman Z-Score of 6.1 and Beneish M-Score of -2.44 suggest low bankruptcy risk and minimal earnings manipulation, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates a mixed financial trajectory that warrants scrutiny regarding recent operational shifts.
Valuation analysis reveals a disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models; trading at a forward P/E multiple of 25.5x, which exceeds historical norms and sector averages implied by the data, suggests the market is pricing in aggressive future performance rather than current earnings power. The discounted cash flow model estimates a fair value that implies an -11.1% downside from current levels, based on assumed long-term free cash flow growth of 10.1%, indicating that the stock may be overvalued relative to its projected cash generation capabilities despite the strong profitability factor (RMW) alpha of 0.215 observed in Fama-French regressions.
Risk assessment highlights a divergence between momentum indicators and insider sentiment; while the stock exhibits exceptional active risk-adjusted returns with an annualized Fama-French Alpha of 26.00% and maintains a value tilt (HML: 0.188), recent insider activity shows $4,026,636 in net selling over the past ninety days. This combination suggests that while quantitative models reward the stock's historical profitability and risk profile, management-level actions may reflect caution regarding future growth prospects or valuation levels, creating a complex risk-reward dynamic for potential investors.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $797 | $540 | $397 |
| 3% | $1031 | $633 | $443 |
| 4% | $1500 | $774 | $504 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $736.78.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $633 (-26.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 46% below its 5-year average P/E of 46.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMcKesson Corporation is currently trading at $865.60 within the healthcare sector, a position that warrants close observation regarding institutional positioning through technical lenses. The recent price action suggests potential volatility as larger market participants may be reevaluating their exposure levels relative to key moving average crossovers. While specific crossover directions are not detailed in the provided snapshot, such indicators typically serve as triggers for significant capital inflows or outflows when institutional algorithms detect shifts in trend momentum. Volume trends accompanying these price movements would further clarify whether current activity is driven by passive index accumulation or active directional trading strategies employed by major funds. Institutional behavior often manifests through sustained volume spikes that precede substantial price breaks, indicating a buildup of orders behind the scenes. If recent sessions have exhibited elevated turnover without corresponding price appreciation, it could signal distribution pressure where large entities are gradually exiting positions at current valuations. Conversely, if volume remains robust alongside upward momentum, this might reflect aggressive accumulation as institutions position themselves for anticipated sector-wide catalysts in healthcare services and supply chain management. The interplay between the $865.60 price point and surrounding support or resistance levels derived from historical moving averages will likely dictate whether these larger players view the current market structure as a buying opportunity, a holding zone, or an area ripe for profit-taking. Ultimately, the convergence of price action and volume data offers a window into how sophisticated investors are structuring their portfolios around McKesson's recent performance. Observers should
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.8200 | +15.5% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.7100 | +14.5% |
| 2024-06-03 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.6200 | +14.8% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYK or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MCK shares regardless of McKesson Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $11.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to MCK through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in McKesson Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If McKesson Corporation (MCK) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MCK. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MCK Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 MCK shares, reducing daily market volatility.
McKesson Corporation (MCK) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.0% of the IYK (IYK) and 1.8% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 15M shares (12.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MCK Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MCK Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for McKesson Corporation over the past year sits near $717.00 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $736.78 trades 2.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MCK Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does McKesson Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
McKesson Corporation converts 99% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 19.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 208 | $754.76 | $156,990.08 |
| 2026-04-16 | 3,331 | $863.42 | $2.9M |
| 2026-04-08 | 34 | $856.62 | $29,125.08 |
| 2026-04-06 | 27 | $884.28 | $23,875.56 |
| 2026-03-26 | 87 | $879.75 | $76,538.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 12 | $881.94 | $10,583.28 |
| 2026-03-23 | 22,869 | $885.84 | $20.3M |
| 2026-03-09 | 2,579 | $919.26 | $2.4M |
| 2026-02-04 | 30 | $851.12 | $25,533.6 |
| 2026-01-20 | 6,045 | $840.46 | $5.1M |
| 2026-01-12 | 5 | $816.06 | $4,080.3 |
| 2026-01-07 | 25 | $826.51 | $20,662.75 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1 | $824.92 | $824.92 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $820.25 | $82,025 |
| 2025-12-19 | 346 | $810.56 | $280,453.76 |
| 2025-12-17 | 147 | $809.96 | $119,064.12 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1,789 | $797.93 | $1.4M |
| 2025-11-25 | 30 | $870.21 | $26,106.3 |
| 2025-11-24 | 100 | $866.03 | $86,603 |
| 2025-11-17 | 106 | $842.09 | $89,261.54 |
| 2025-11-06 | 15,261 | $844.26 | $12.9M |
| 2025-11-03 | 21 | $811.34 | $17,038.14 |
| 2025-10-31 | 10,325 | $825.53 | $8.5M |
| 2025-10-30 | 5 | $807.63 | $4,038.15 |
| 2025-10-20 | 1,000 | $786.00 | $786,000 |
| 2025-10-14 | 2,428 | $769.49 | $1.9M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COR | 0.760 | 0.712 | High co-movement |
| CAH | 0.696 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| WELL | 0.438 | 0.408 | Moderate |
| OHI | 0.365 | 0.380 | Moderate |
| ADC | 0.352 | 0.325 | Moderate |
| VTR | 0.344 | 0.344 | Moderate |
| WRB | 0.341 | 0.245 | Moderate |
| CTRE | 0.328 | 0.311 | Moderate |
| HCA | 0.323 | 0.356 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MCK to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.