Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 21.5x earnings — a 38% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — DRI is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.5. Near modeled fair value — DCF estimates $180 (-6%).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedDarden Restaurants exhibits a capital allocation profile where the ROIC-WACC spread of 2.2% indicates a modest, albeit positive, economic moat relative to its cost of capital. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the robust 45.4% return on equity is driven primarily by high leverage (equity multiplier of 5.45x) rather than operational efficiency or pricing power, given the net margin sits at a moderate 8.7%. While profitability metrics are strong with an RMW factor score of 0.329 and no red flags for earnings manipulation per the Beneish M-Score of -2.57, solvency concerns emerge from an Altman Z-Score of 2.6, which suggests a heightened probability of financial distress compared to peers. The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 further contextualizes this by indicating decent fundamental strength but falling short of the threshold for exceptional quality.
Valuation analysis presents a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a forward P/E multiple of 20.7x, Darden commands less than half the valuation premium seen in its consumer cyclical sector average of 42.1x, reflecting lower growth expectations embedded by the market. This discount aligns with the discounted cash flow model's fair value estimate of $185, which implies a conservative decade-long free cash flow growth rate of only 5.6%. Consequently, current trading levels suggest the stock is priced at approximately -5.6% downside from this DCF-derived benchmark, indicating that the market has already factored in limited expansion potential despite the company's solid profitability factor.
Risk assessment highlights a notable divergence between fundamental quality and recent ownership dynamics. Although Fama-French alpha remains neutral at -0.05%, signaling no abnormal risk-adjusted returns relative to size or value factors over time, insider activity presents a conflicting signal. Over the past 90 days, net insider selling totaling $6.7 million suggests management may view current valuations as less attractive than alternative capital deployment opportunities, potentially offsetting the appeal of the stock's depressed multiple and moderate leverage profile for risk-averse investors.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $235 | $154 | $112 |
| 3% | $299 | $180 | $126 |
| 4% | $420 | $218 | $143 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $198.27.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $180 (-6.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 5% below its 5-year average P/E of 21.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDarden Restaurants, Inc. is currently trading at $193.73 within the Consumer Cyclical sector. Without specific Moving Average Envelope parameters or historical price data points provided in this context, a precise determination of whether the current valuation sits near the upper or lower boundaries of its statistical range cannot be established. The technical implication relies entirely on where this absolute price level aligns relative to the calculated standard deviations from recent mean prices. If the market structure indicates that $193.73 represents an extreme deviation, historical patterns often suggest a potential pullback toward central tendency; conversely, if the price remains within the core band of normal fluctuation, momentum may continue without immediate reversal pressure. The absence of explicit envelope data prevents a definitive assessment of mean-reversion probability at this exact moment. Technical analysis typically posits that assets trading far above their average true range often face downward correction forces, while those deeply below may attract upward support. For DRI specifically, the current figure must be weighed against its own short-term and long-term volatility metrics to gauge distance from equilibrium. Observers should monitor if subsequent price action tests key statistical limits derived from past performance, as such interactions frequently signal shifts in market sentiment or distribution dynamics rather than immediate directional certainty.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-09 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $1.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-10 | $1.5000 | +7.1% |
| 2025-04-10 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-10 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-10 | $1.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-10 | $1.4000 | +6.9% |
| 2024-04-09 | $1.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-09 | $1.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | $1.3100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-07 | $1.3100 | +8.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SCHD or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DRI shares regardless of Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to DRI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Darden Restaurants, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DRI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DRI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 DRI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.9% of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) and 0.5% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 21M shares (18.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DRI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DRI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Darden Restaurants, Inc. over the past year sits near $202.41 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $198.27 sits 2.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DRI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Darden Restaurants, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Darden Restaurants, Inc. converts 55% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 18 | $195.80 | $3,524.4 |
| 2026-05-07 | 7,660 | $195.70 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-04 | 751 | $194.76 | $146,264.76 |
| 2026-04-28 | 199 | $198.70 | $39,541.3 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,003 | $201.07 | $201,673.21 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3 | $196.34 | $589.02 |
| 2026-04-01 | 150 | $196.04 | $29,406 |
| 2026-03-31 | 149 | $195.05 | $29,062.45 |
| 2026-03-25 | 12 | $200.52 | $2,406.24 |
| 2026-03-20 | 9,920 | $204.42 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-13 | 13,608 | $198.43 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-11 | 596 | $203.47 | $121,268.12 |
| 2026-03-10 | 104,128 | $201.64 | $21.0M |
| 2026-03-06 | 82 | $206.21 | $16,909.22 |
| 2026-03-05 | 16 | $203.41 | $3,254.56 |
| 2026-02-27 | 6,688 | $214.83 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-25 | 71 | $213.92 | $15,188.32 |
| 2026-02-09 | 2,599 | $216.27 | $562,085.73 |
| 2026-02-06 | 86 | $213.56 | $18,366.16 |
| 2026-02-05 | 19,655 | $212.22 | $4.2M |
| 2026-02-03 | 97 | $200.90 | $19,487.3 |
| 2026-02-02 | 72 | $199.35 | $14,353.2 |
| 2026-01-29 | 9,300 | $196.50 | $1.8M |
| 2026-01-26 | 325 | $206.17 | $67,005.25 |
| 2026-01-20 | 48,063 | $214.62 | $10.3M |
| 2026-01-15 | 896 | $207.87 | $186,251.52 |
| 2026-01-12 | 12,016 | $202.36 | $2.4M |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,444 | $202.50 | $292,410 |
| 2026-01-07 | 28 | $200.25 | $5,607 |
| 2026-01-05 | 60 | $187.21 | $11,232.6 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CUBE | 0.418 | 0.384 | Moderate |
| CMG | 0.413 | 0.475 | Moderate |
| EXR | 0.410 | 0.416 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.400 | 0.301 | Moderate |
| SBUX | 0.389 | 0.465 | Moderate |
| TJX | 0.379 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.378 | 0.437 | Moderate |
| AMP | 0.371 | 0.351 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.370 | 0.378 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DRI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.