HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 13.0x earnings — a 80% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — HCA is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.8. DCF fair value of $853 implies 72% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of HCA Healthcare exhibit a compelling divergence between operational efficiency and capital structure leverage. The company generates substantial value creation, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +10.7%, indicating that returns on invested capital significantly outpace the cost of financing. This high absolute return is driven primarily by aggressive financial leverage rather than margin expansion or asset turnover; specifically, a negative equity multiplier of -21.91x inflates the DuPont ROE to an anomalous -244.8%, while underlying operational metrics remain robust with 9.0% net margins and 7.1% revenue growth. Quality screening reinforces this stability, as a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong financial health, supported by a Beneish M-Score of -2.95 that suggests low earnings manipulation risk despite an Altman Z-Score hovering near the distress threshold at 2.9.
Valuation metrics present a stark contrast between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from cash flow assumptions. Trading at 16.7x forward earnings, the stock is priced substantially below its sector average of 30.8x, suggesting significant relative undervaluation within the healthcare landscape. Discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $839, representing a theoretical upside of 77.3% based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 8.1%. This wide disparity indicates that current market prices may not fully reflect the company's projected long-term cash generation capabilities or the premium associated with its profitability factor (RMW) score of 0.291.
Risk and reward dynamics are further illuminated by Fama-French style factors and insider activity, which introduce conflicting signals regarding future performance. The stock demonstrates a strong value tilt with an HML alpha of 0.398 and exceptional momentum from profitability, yielding an annualized Fama-French Alpha of 44.21%. However, this positive factor exposure is counterbalanced by significant net insider selling totaling $29 million over the last ninety days, which may signal management's view on near-term liquidity or valuation concerns despite the strong fundamental backdrop and quality scores.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 7% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $1064 | $755 | $563 |
| 3% | $1250 | $853 | $622 |
| 4% | $1515 | $981 | $694 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $367.35.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $853 (+71.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 30% above its 5-year average P/E of 13.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHCA Healthcare is currently trading at $392.56, a level that may represent significant psychological resistance or support depending on the immediate prior price action relative to this figure. The presence of Simple Moving Average crossovers typically signals shifts in momentum where larger market participants might be adjusting their positions; for instance, a bullish crossover could indicate accumulating interest from institutions anticipating upward movement, while a bearish divergence often suggests distribution as major players take profits or reduce exposure following recent gains. Volume trends accompanying these price movements serve as critical validation, with rising volume during price advances potentially confirming institutional buying pressure and elevated volume on pullbacks hinting at aggressive selling by sophisticated traders who are repositioning their portfolios based on changing sector valuations. In the healthcare sector specifically, such technical patterns often reflect how large funds are navigating regulatory headwinds or reimbursement changes, as these factors can drive systematic rebalancing rather than speculative trading. If price action is holding above key moving averages while volume remains robust, it may imply that institutional holders view the current valuation as attractive relative to long-term fundamentals, thereby limiting downside risk in their eyes. Conversely, if volatility increases alongside widening gaps between daily highs and lows without corresponding volume confirmation, it could suggest uncertainty among large capital allocators regarding the sustainability of recent trends. Observers should note that these indicators collectively map the shifting tides of institutional sentiment rather than dictating a singular directional outcome for retail participants.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | $0.7800 | +8.3% |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.7200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-16 | $0.7200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-16 | $0.7200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-17 | $0.7200 | +9.1% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.6600 | +10.0% |
| 2023-12-13 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HCA shares regardless of HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to HCA through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in HCA Healthcare, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HCA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HCA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 HCA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.3% of the XHS (XHS) and 1.1% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 18M shares (8.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest HCA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HCA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for HCA Healthcare, Inc. over the past year sits near $471.04 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $367.35 sits 22.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HCA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does HCA Healthcare, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. converts 49% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 51% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 10.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 25 | $474.03 | $11,850.75 |
| 2026-04-23 | 1 | $471.34 | $471.34 |
| 2026-04-17 | 361 | $482.97 | $174,352.17 |
| 2026-04-16 | 310 | $488.58 | $151,459.8 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2,569 | $489.58 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-25 | 15 | $485.72 | $7,285.8 |
| 2026-03-23 | 18 | $493.88 | $8,889.84 |
| 2026-03-11 | 13 | $537.64 | $6,989.32 |
| 2026-03-10 | 4,807 | $545.13 | $2.6M |
| 2026-03-05 | 27,203 | $544.41 | $14.8M |
| 2026-02-20 | 328 | $528.66 | $173,400.48 |
| 2026-02-19 | 9 | $535.02 | $4,815.18 |
| 2026-02-10 | 380 | $497.54 | $189,065.2 |
| 2026-02-06 | 400 | $513.76 | $205,504 |
| 2026-02-05 | 10 | $493.64 | $4,936.4 |
| 2026-01-21 | 3,724 | $464.38 | $1.7M |
| 2026-01-20 | 6,186 | $469.29 | $2.9M |
| 2026-01-14 | 2 | $479.32 | $958.64 |
| 2026-01-05 | 7,848 | $470.39 | $3.7M |
| 2025-12-22 | 168 | $472.98 | $79,460.64 |
| 2025-12-19 | 56 | $466.56 | $26,127.36 |
| 2025-12-15 | 8 | $484.77 | $3,878.16 |
| 2025-11-24 | 150 | $491.00 | $73,650 |
| 2025-11-20 | 975 | $481.06 | $469,033.5 |
| 2025-11-18 | 502 | $477.10 | $239,504.2 |
| 2025-11-12 | 5 | $462.31 | $2,311.55 |
| 2025-11-10 | 3,597 | $476.61 | $1.7M |
| 2025-10-29 | 191 | $466.46 | $89,093.86 |
| 2025-10-28 | 197 | $467.86 | $92,168.42 |
| 2025-10-24 | 33,416 | $440.16 | $14.7M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COR | 0.327 | 0.352 | Moderate |
| MCK | 0.323 | 0.356 | Moderate |
| HIG | 0.323 | 0.214 | Moderate |
| CINF | 0.320 | 0.209 | Moderate |
| WRB | 0.315 | 0.220 | Moderate |
| ECL | 0.315 | 0.275 | Moderate |
| L | 0.312 | 0.199 | Moderate |
| SYY | 0.303 | 0.337 | Moderate |
| TRV | 0.300 | 0.216 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HCA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.