Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.0x earnings — a 55% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — HII is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $821 implies 108% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedHuntington Ingalls Industries exhibits a robust fundamental profile characterized by high-quality earnings and strong financial discipline. The company's Return on Invested Capital of 7.2% suggests efficient capital allocation, while the DuPont decomposition reveals that its 11.9% ROE is primarily driven by leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.51x) rather than operational expansion or margin compression, given a net margin of only 4.9%. This structure aligns with high Piotroski F-Score and low Beneish M-Score metrics, indicating strong financial health and minimal earnings manipulation risk. Despite revenue growth accelerating to 8.2% year-over-yoer, the return profile remains moderate relative to the leverage employed.
Valuation analysis presents a notable divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E of 25.8x, HII commands a significant premium compared to its sector average of 44.2x? No, wait—the stock trades below the sector average (25.8x vs 44.2x), suggesting the market may be underweighting its specific growth prospects or quality attributes relative to peers. However, this discount contrasts sharply with a DCF-derived fair value estimate of $1,137, which implies that current pricing fails to fully capture long-term cash flow potential assuming sustained growth rates embedded in the model. The gap between the implied fair value and market price suggests the stock may be undervalued based on fundamental projections, though this assumes the DCF inputs regarding terminal growth and discount rates are accurate.
Risk assessment reveals a conflicting signal from insider activity that warrants close monitoring. While the underlying fundamentals display stability through high F-Scores and steady revenue expansion, there has been $7,355,748 in net insider selling over the past 90 days. This outflow could indicate management anticipating near-term headwinds or a belief that shares are currently fairly valued to slightly rich relative to short-term expectations, creating a friction point between long-term intrinsic value and immediate sentiment. Investors must weigh whether this insider flow reflects a temporary tactical adjustment or a structural shift in the company's outlook before concluding on the risk-reward asymmetry presented by the valuation gap.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $946 | $678 | $472 |
| 3% | $1243 | $821 | $539 |
| 4% | $1838 | $1047 | $629 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $293.66.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $821 (+108.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 16% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. is currently trading at $317.55 within the Industrials sector, presenting a technical snapshot that warrants analysis regarding its position relative to moving average envelopes. Without specific values for the Simple Moving Averages or their upper and lower bounds in the provided dataset, it is impossible to definitively categorize whether the current price sits near the mean, at an extreme overbought level above the envelope, or in a deep oversold condition below it. The absence of these boundary metrics prevents a clear assessment of immediate mean-reversion potential; typically, prices trading significantly away from their central tendency might suggest a higher probability of reverting toward the average, whereas those hugging the center indicate continued stability or consolidation patterns. Consequently, any inference about future price behavior must remain speculative without the necessary comparative data points that define the volatility channel. The current figure alone does not reveal if the asset is experiencing a breakout from a range or simply oscillating within normal parameters. A comprehensive evaluation of relative value would require integrating this spot price with historical moving averages to determine the width of the envelope and the distance of the stock from its statistical center. Until such contextual data is available, the technical picture remains incomplete regarding specific mean-reversion dynamics or deviation extremes that often trigger corrective market movements in industrial equities.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $1.3800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $1.3800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $1.3800 | +2.2% |
| 2025-08-29 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | $1.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $1.3500 | +3.8% |
| 2024-08-30 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-31 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-22 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-22 | $1.3000 | +4.8% |
| 2023-08-24 | $1.2400 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MOAT or XAR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HII shares regardless of Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to HII through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ROCKET LAB CORP (RKLB) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HII. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 25 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HII Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 HII shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.8% of the MOAT (MOAT) and 2.4% of the XAR (XAR). Across 27 tracked ETFs, approximately 8M shares (19.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HII Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 27 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HII Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. over the past year sits near $268.10 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $293.66 trades 9.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HII Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. converts 66% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 5,414 | $334.22 | $1.8M |
| 2026-05-12 | 21 | $317.75 | $6,672.75 |
| 2026-04-17 | 36 | $396.17 | $14,262.12 |
| 2026-04-15 | 450 | $398.07 | $179,131.5 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2,400 | $394.41 | $946,584 |
| 2026-03-25 | 3 | $402.08 | $1,206.24 |
| 2026-03-18 | 4,535 | $422.94 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-02 | 399 | $444.52 | $177,363.48 |
| 2026-02-06 | 7,584 | $369.38 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-05 | 998 | $413.14 | $412,313.72 |
| 2026-01-15 | 5 | $415.39 | $2,076.95 |
| 2026-01-12 | 21,679 | $386.99 | $8.4M |
| 2026-01-09 | 919 | $378.47 | $347,813.93 |
| 2026-01-02 | 900 | $340.07 | $306,063 |
| 2025-12-26 | 729 | $355.45 | $259,123.05 |
| 2025-12-22 | 100 | $336.64 | $33,664 |
| 2025-12-10 | 12 | $314.95 | $3,779.4 |
| 2025-11-28 | 917 | $314.31 | $288,222.27 |
| 2025-11-21 | 953 | $301.83 | $287,643.99 |
| 2025-11-12 | 6,427 | $324.19 | $2.1M |
| 2025-11-03 | 28 | $322.02 | $9,016.56 |
| 2025-10-22 | 18 | $287.53 | $5,175.54 |
| 2025-10-07 | 222 | $288.49 | $64,044.78 |
| 2025-10-01 | 24,372 | $287.91 | $7.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LHX | 0.593 | 0.648 | Moderate |
| GD | 0.556 | 0.567 | Moderate |
| KTOS | 0.516 | 0.629 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.472 | 0.590 | Moderate |
| BWXT | 0.433 | 0.533 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.428 | 0.517 | Moderate |
| LMT | 0.425 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| NOC | 0.423 | 0.511 | Moderate |
| LDOS | 0.422 | 0.439 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HII to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.