Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicTSN trades at 48.0x earnings — a 48% premium to its sector average of 32.6x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.2. DCF fair value of $32 implies 50% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this consumer defensive leader present a significant value destruction dynamic, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -3.5%, indicating capital allocation that fails to cover the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the modest 2.6% return on equity is driven primarily by asset turnover (1.49x) rather than margin expansion or leverage efficiency, as net margins compress to just 0.9%. While financial distress metrics like the Altman Z-Score remain in a moderate zone at 3.1 and Beneish M-Score suggests low earnings manipulation risk at -2.62, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals average fundamental strength without recent upgrades. This operational profile is further corroborated by sluggish revenue growth of only 2.1% YoY, suggesting limited pricing power or volume expansion in a mature sector environment.
Valuation metrics currently reflect extreme market dissonance relative to intrinsic value and historical norms. The current P/E ratio of 115.4x stands at more than three times the sector average of 34.4x, implying that investors are pricing in aggressive future growth despite an implied free cash flow expansion rate of merely 3.7% over the next decade. A discounted cash flow analysis anchors fair value significantly lower at $36, resulting in a -43.4% downside gap from current levels. This divergence suggests the market is decoupling valuation multiples from underlying profitability drivers, potentially inflating expectations for growth that the company's low Fama-French alpha of -1.30% and neutral profitability factor (RMW) have not yet substantiated in recent performance.
Risk factors appear skewed toward downside potential given the negative value tilt delta relative to historical norms, although the strong value factor score of 0.309 indicates some mean-reversion characteristics inherent to the stock's price structure. With insider flow remaining neutral over the last ninety days and no clear alpha generation in recent periods, there is limited signal regarding management confidence or upcoming catalysts that could alter the trajectory. The combination of negative capital efficiency, depressed margins, and a valuation premium vastly exceeding sector peers creates an asymmetric risk profile where future earnings must significantly exceed current consensus to justify existing price levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7% | 9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $33 | $24 | $13 |
| 3% | $47 | $32 | $17 |
| 4% | $74 | $45 | $22 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $59.59.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $32 (-50.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 103% above its 5-year average P/E of 57.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of TSN is trading below its 50-day moving average but above the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential short-term downtrend against longer-term support. With an RSI reading of 36.3, which falls into oversold territory, this suggests that the stock may be losing some downward momentum and could be due for a bounce back in price action.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.5100 | +2.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.5000 | +2.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.4900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.4900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $0.4900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.4900 | +2.1% |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or VDC, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TSN shares regardless of Tyson Foods, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to TSN through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Tyson Foods, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with TSN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
TSN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 TSN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 0.7% of the VDC (VDC). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 46M shares (16.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest TSN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
TSN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Tyson Foods, Inc. over the past year sits near $53.17 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $59.59 trades 12.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
TSN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Tyson Foods, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Tyson Foods, Inc. converts 46% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 54% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 186 | $66.89 | $12,441.54 |
| 2026-05-12 | 25,160 | $67.08 | $1.7M |
| 2026-05-08 | 4 | $67.94 | $271.76 |
| 2026-04-17 | 220 | $63.99 | $14,077.8 |
| 2026-04-09 | 466 | $64.65 | $30,126.9 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,841 | $64.63 | $183,613.83 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,955 | $63.92 | $188,883.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | 28 | $60.89 | $1,704.92 |
| 2026-03-17 | 18 | $61.83 | $1,112.94 |
| 2026-03-16 | 18 | $60.32 | $1,085.76 |
| 2026-03-11 | 35,092 | $60.24 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-10 | 238 | $61.33 | $14,596.54 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,300 | $63.61 | $82,693 |
| 2026-02-23 | 300 | $63.86 | $19,158 |
| 2026-02-18 | 68 | $62.90 | $4,277.2 |
| 2026-02-13 | 1,161 | $63.31 | $73,502.91 |
| 2026-02-03 | 2,000 | $65.74 | $131,480 |
| 2026-01-22 | 3,348 | $59.99 | $200,846.52 |
| 2026-01-20 | 70,538 | $60.07 | $4.2M |
| 2026-01-14 | 5,726 | $60.08 | $344,018.08 |
| 2026-01-07 | 100,000 | $55.97 | $5.6M |
| 2025-12-22 | 13,313 | $58.47 | $778,411.11 |
| 2025-12-11 | 207 | $57.67 | $11,937.69 |
| 2025-12-01 | 89 | $58.05 | $5,166.45 |
| 2025-11-26 | 5,021 | $57.14 | $286,899.94 |
| 2025-11-24 | 92 | $53.67 | $4,937.64 |
| 2025-11-12 | 4 | $55.51 | $222.04 |
| 2025-11-10 | 55,677 | $52.68 | $2.9M |
| 2025-11-05 | 2 | $52.04 | $104.08 |
| 2025-10-31 | 16,459 | $51.41 | $846,157.19 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CAG | 0.455 | 0.369 | Moderate |
| KHC | 0.452 | 0.413 | Moderate |
| HRL | 0.446 | 0.424 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.397 | 0.380 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.397 | 0.331 | Moderate |
| GIS | 0.395 | 0.271 | Moderate |
| CLX | 0.391 | 0.319 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.390 | 0.277 | Moderate |
| PKG | 0.373 | 0.338 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare TSN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.