Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicLNG trades at 38.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 34.8x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.4. DCF fair value of $86 implies 67% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.45 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits robust fundamental economics characterized by a high-quality earnings profile, evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -1.45 that suggests low manipulation risk. Its ROE of 40.8% is primarily driven by exceptional net margins at 26.7%, supported by strong asset turnover rather than excessive leverage, though the equity multiplier of 3.66x indicates moderate financial gearing relative to peers. This operational efficiency generates an implied free cash flow growth rate of only 4.2% over a decade, creating a tension between current profitability and long-term expansion velocity that defines its capital allocation profile.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence from intrinsic value models despite attractive multiples on the surface. While the current P/E ratio sits at 11.7x, which appears compressed relative to typical growth narratives, the DCF analysis implies a fair value of $146 with an upside potential of -48.5%, indicating the market may be pricing in substantial downside or that the discount rate assumptions are particularly aggressive for this asset class. The discrepancy between the low P/E and negative implied upside suggests investors are not fully recognizing the quality of earnings, potentially due to sector-specific headwinds or skepticism regarding the sustainability of the 27.2% revenue growth trajectory.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis through mixed factor exposures and recent insider activity. The stock demonstrates a positive Fama-French alpha of 4.10%, signaling outperformance relative to its style benchmarks, yet it carries a Value Factor (HML) score of 0.554 alongside negative Profitability Factor exposure (-0.098), highlighting a valuation tilt that conflicts with its current high-margin status. Compounding this uncertainty is $1.02 million in net insider selling over the last ninety days, which often precedes further price adjustments or signals management concern regarding future liquidity and capital deployment needs.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 27% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $85 | $58 | $20 |
| 3% | $130 | $86 | $32 |
| 4% | $220 | $134 | $49 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $236.01.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $86 (-67.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 14% above its 5-year average P/E of 9.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCheniere Energy, Inc. is currently trading at $270.06 within the energy sector, presenting a specific relative-value scenario dependent on its relationship to surrounding moving average envelopes. Without explicit upper and lower bound data for these statistical bands, the precise degree of mean-reversion potential remains indeterminate; however, if this price point sits significantly above a long-term Simple Moving Average envelope, it suggests an extended state that historically often precedes corrective pullbacks toward equilibrium levels. Conversely, positioning well below such thresholds might indicate suppressed momentum with potential upward drift as statistical norms reassert themselves. The current valuation implies the market is weighing fundamental sector dynamics against recent price action trends, creating a setup where deviation from historical averages could trigger volatility in either direction. The absence of immediate proximity to these calculated boundaries leaves the trajectory ambiguous regarding short-term reversal mechanics. Traders observing this relative placement must consider whether the $270.06 level represents an overextended condition ripe for statistical correction or a sustained breakout supported by underlying structural factors beyond simple moving averages. In either case, the technical narrative hinges entirely on where the current price resides relative to these dynamic support and resistance zones defined by past performance metrics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | $0.5550 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-06 | $0.5550 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | $0.5550 | +11.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.5000 | +14.9% |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.4350 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.4350 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-05 | $0.4350 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-08 | $0.4350 | +10.1% |
| 2023-08-08 | $0.3950 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VDE or VOE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell LNG shares regardless of Cheniere Energy, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to LNG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cheniere Energy, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with LNG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
LNG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 12 LNG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the VDE (VDE) and 1.0% of the VOE (VOE). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 18M shares (8.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest LNG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
LNG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cheniere Energy, Inc. over the past year sits near $234.33 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $236.01 trades 0.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
LNG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Cheniere Energy, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Cheniere Energy, Inc. converts 23% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 77% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 9.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 460 | $239.38 | $110,114.8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 4,367 | $246.78 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-07 | 1,020 | $261.42 | $266,648.4 |
| 2026-05-06 | 36 | $269.52 | $9,702.72 |
| 2026-05-05 | 22 | $272.85 | $6,002.7 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,177 | $270.06 | $317,860.62 |
| 2026-05-01 | 2 | $274.95 | $549.9 |
| 2026-04-30 | 115 | $272.23 | $31,306.45 |
| 2026-04-27 | 155 | $257.09 | $39,848.95 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,000 | $251.07 | $502,140 |
| 2026-04-17 | 175 | $262.74 | $45,979.5 |
| 2026-04-16 | 402 | $256.75 | $103,213.5 |
| 2026-04-13 | 5,410 | $265.54 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-10 | 5,410 | $265.77 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-09 | 5,410 | $275.21 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-06 | 606 | $281.16 | $170,382.96 |
| 2026-03-30 | 3,000 | $296.91 | $890,730 |
| 2026-03-23 | 11,003 | $280.89 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-17 | 2,628 | $251.29 | $660,390.12 |
| 2026-03-11 | 154 | $245.76 | $37,847.04 |
| 2026-03-09 | 11,940 | $255.15 | $3.0M |
| 2026-03-04 | 18,687 | $246.07 | $4.6M |
| 2026-03-03 | 4,045 | $248.93 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-02 | 798 | $235.73 | $188,112.54 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,300 | $226.47 | $294,411 |
| 2026-02-20 | 1,474 | $226.19 | $333,404.06 |
| 2026-02-17 | 31,170 | $220.79 | $6.9M |
| 2026-01-14 | 59,943 | $193.69 | $11.6M |
| 2026-01-07 | 44 | $194.59 | $8,561.96 |
| 2026-01-06 | 3 | $198.72 | $596.16 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| KMI | 0.579 | 0.462 | Moderate |
| OKE | 0.569 | 0.542 | Moderate |
| WMB | 0.519 | 0.389 | Moderate |
| TRGP | 0.453 | 0.307 | Moderate |
| CF | 0.428 | 0.512 | Moderate |
| CTRA | 0.414 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| EQT | 0.404 | 0.270 | Moderate |
| EOG | 0.404 | 0.495 | Moderate |
| VG | 0.379 | 0.537 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare LNG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.