Vistra Corp. vs Constellation Energy Corporation
CEG wins the Tale of the Tape 8–1.
🏆 Tale of the Tape
Green = winner in each category. Higher is better except P/E (lower = cheaper).
Rolling Correlation
Highly correlated — these stocks tend to move together. Limited diversification benefit.
Fundamentals
| Metric | VST | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $54.0B | $103.9B |
| P/E Ratio | 26.8x | 25.0x |
| Forward P/E | 14.6x | 21.1x |
| P/B | 20.67x | 3.11x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% | 0.59% |
| Beta | 1.45 | 1.16 |
Quantitative Metrics
| Metric | VST | CEG |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value | — | $42.14 |
| DCF Upside | — | -85.6% |
| Piotroski F | 4/9 | 6/9 |
| Altman Z | 1.38 | 2.38 |
| Beneish M | -2.53 | -2.29 |
| FCF Yield | 1.95% | 1.20% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 3.0x | 0.6x |
| ROIC | 5.6% | 6.4% |
| WACC | 11.7% | 11.6% |
| ROIC – WACC | -6.1pp | -5.1pp |
| Gross Margin | 32.9% | 18.4% |
| Net Margin | 5.3% | 9.1% |
| Rev Growth YoY | 3.0% | 8.3% |
| Sharpe (1Y) | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Max Drawdown 3Y | -48.8% | -50.7% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 38% | 38% |
VST Price
CEG Price
ETF Exposure
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Quant metrics computed from financial statements and 1,200+ trading days. Correlation is Pearson coefficient on daily log returns. Not investment advice.
VST vs CEG: Head-to-Head Analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) and Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) represent two companies in the Utilities sector. In our quantitative Tale of the Tape scoring, CEG leads 8–1 across nine fundamental and risk metrics including profitability, valuation, capital efficiency, and financial health.
In terms of capital efficiency, VST generates a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.6% compared to CEG's 6.4%. This suggests CEG is more effective at deploying capital to generate shareholder returns.
The 252-day rolling correlation between VST and CEG is 0.796, indicating these stocks move closely together, offering limited diversification benefit in a portfolio context.
VST appears in 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB, while CEG appears in 29 ETFs. Investors holding broad-market ETFs may already have indirect exposure to both stocks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which stock is the better investment, VST or CEG?
Our quantitative analysis compares VST and CEG across nine fundamental dimensions. CEG wins the Tale of the Tape 8–1. However, stock selection depends on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio context. These metrics are computed from SEC filings and market data — they are not investment recommendations.
Are VST and CEG correlated?
The 252-day correlation between VST and CEG is 0.796. They are highly correlated, meaning they tend to move together.
How is the Tale of the Tape scored?
The Tale of the Tape compares both stocks across nine categories: profitability (net margin), valuation (P/E), efficiency (ROIC), health (Piotroski F-Score), safety (Altman Z-Score), growth (revenue YoY), risk (Sharpe ratio), leverage (debt-to-equity), and cash generation (FCF yield). The stock that wins more categories takes the overall score. Lower P/E and lower debt-to-equity count as wins.