Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. vs Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
KDP wins the Tale of the Tape 6–3.
🏆 Tale of the Tape
Green = winner in each category. Higher is better except P/E (lower = cheaper).
Rolling Correlation
Low correlation — excellent diversification pair.
Fundamentals
| Metric | KDP | ADM |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $40.9B | $38.5B |
| P/E Ratio | 22.2x | 35.6x |
| Forward P/E | 11.9x | 15.4x |
| P/B | 1.62x | 1.69x |
| Dividend Yield | 3.06% | 2.61% |
| Beta | 0.42 | 0.58 |
Quantitative Metrics
| Metric | KDP | ADM |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value | $23.06 | $430.88 |
| DCF Upside | -11.5% | +517.1% |
| Piotroski F | 6/9 | 4/9 |
| Altman Z | 1.30 | 3.09 |
| Beneish M | -2.36 | -2.99 |
| FCF Yield | 3.09% | 10.73% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 2.9x | 1.8x |
| ROIC | 5.8% | 4.5% |
| WACC | 6.9% | 8.0% |
| ROIC – WACC | -1.2pp | -3.5pp |
| Gross Margin | 54.2% | 6.3% |
| Net Margin | 12.5% | 1.3% |
| Rev Growth YoY | 8.2% | -6.2% |
| Sharpe (1Y) | -1.02 | 1.81 |
| Max Drawdown 3Y | -31.0% | — |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 84% | 23% |
KDP Price
ADM Price
ETF Exposure
KDP found in:
ADM found in:
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Quant metrics computed from financial statements and 1,200+ trading days. Correlation is Pearson coefficient on daily log returns. Not investment advice.
KDP vs ADM: Head-to-Head Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) and Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) represent two companies in the Consumer Defensive sector. In our quantitative Tale of the Tape scoring, KDP leads 6–3 across nine fundamental and risk metrics including profitability, valuation, capital efficiency, and financial health.
In terms of capital efficiency, KDP generates a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.8% compared to ADM's 4.5%. This suggests KDP is more effective at deploying capital to generate shareholder returns.
The 252-day rolling correlation between KDP and ADM is 0.117, indicating low correlation, making them an effective diversification pair in a portfolio context.
KDP appears in 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB, while ADM appears in 41 ETFs. Investors holding broad-market ETFs may already have indirect exposure to both stocks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which stock is the better investment, KDP or ADM?
Our quantitative analysis compares KDP and ADM across nine fundamental dimensions. KDP wins the Tale of the Tape 6–3. However, stock selection depends on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio context. These metrics are computed from SEC filings and market data — they are not investment recommendations.
Are KDP and ADM correlated?
The 252-day correlation between KDP and ADM is 0.117. They have low correlation, offering good diversification.
How is the Tale of the Tape scored?
The Tale of the Tape compares both stocks across nine categories: profitability (net margin), valuation (P/E), efficiency (ROIC), health (Piotroski F-Score), safety (Altman Z-Score), growth (revenue YoY), risk (Sharpe ratio), leverage (debt-to-equity), and cash generation (FCF yield). The stock that wins more categories takes the overall score. Lower P/E and lower debt-to-equity count as wins.