CF Industries Holdings, Inc. vs Alcoa Corporation
CF wins the Tale of the Tape 8–1.
🏆 Tale of the Tape
Green = winner in each category. Higher is better except P/E (lower = cheaper).
Rolling Correlation
Low correlation — excellent diversification pair.
Fundamentals
| Metric | CF | AA |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $17.3B | $20.5B |
| P/E Ratio | 10.1x | 19.9x |
| Forward P/E | 10.1x | 11.5x |
| P/B | 3.23x | 3.00x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.78% | 0.52% |
| Beta | 0.42 | 1.51 |
Quantitative Metrics
| Metric | CF | AA |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value | $237.23 | $43.49 |
| DCF Upside | +95.0% | -40.7% |
| Piotroski F | 8/9 | 6/9 |
| Altman Z | 3.40 | 2.31 |
| Beneish M | -2.79 | -2.39 |
| FCF Yield | 9.06% | 2.82% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.4x | 0.5x |
| ROIC | 14.3% | 7.8% |
| WACC | 7.5% | 13.9% |
| ROIC – WACC | 6.8pp | -6.1pp |
| Gross Margin | 38.5% | 16.9% |
| Net Margin | 20.5% | 9.0% |
| Rev Growth YoY | 19.3% | 7.9% |
| Sharpe (1Y) | 1.59 | 2.18 |
| Max Drawdown 3Y | — | -52.3% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 18% | 19% |
CF Price
AA Price
ETF Exposure
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Quant metrics computed from financial statements and 1,200+ trading days. Correlation is Pearson coefficient on daily log returns. Not investment advice.
CF vs AA: Head-to-Head Analysis
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) and Alcoa Corporation (AA) represent two companies in the Basic Materials sector. In our quantitative Tale of the Tape scoring, CF leads 8–1 across nine fundamental and risk metrics including profitability, valuation, capital efficiency, and financial health.
In terms of capital efficiency, CF generates a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 14.3% compared to AA's 7.8%. This suggests CF is more effective at deploying capital to generate shareholder returns.
The 252-day rolling correlation between CF and AA is 0.084, indicating low correlation, making them an effective diversification pair in a portfolio context.
CF appears in 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB, while AA appears in 16 ETFs. Investors holding broad-market ETFs may already have indirect exposure to both stocks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which stock is the better investment, CF or AA?
Our quantitative analysis compares CF and AA across nine fundamental dimensions. CF wins the Tale of the Tape 8–1. However, stock selection depends on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio context. These metrics are computed from SEC filings and market data — they are not investment recommendations.
Are CF and AA correlated?
The 252-day correlation between CF and AA is 0.084. They have low correlation, offering good diversification.
How is the Tale of the Tape scored?
The Tale of the Tape compares both stocks across nine categories: profitability (net margin), valuation (P/E), efficiency (ROIC), health (Piotroski F-Score), safety (Altman Z-Score), growth (revenue YoY), risk (Sharpe ratio), leverage (debt-to-equity), and cash generation (FCF yield). The stock that wins more categories takes the overall score. Lower P/E and lower debt-to-equity count as wins.