Toll Brothers, Inc. vs The Home Depot, Inc.
TOL wins the Tale of the Tape 5–3.
🏆 Tale of the Tape
Green = winner in each category. Higher is better except P/E (lower = cheaper).
Rolling Correlation
Highly correlated — these stocks tend to move together. Limited diversification benefit.
Fundamentals
| Metric | TOL | HD |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $13.0B | $316.2B |
| P/E Ratio | 10.5x | 22.5x |
| Forward P/E | 9.8x | 19.7x |
| P/B | 1.56x | 22.79x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.73% | 2.94% |
| Beta | 1.39 | 1.00 |
Quantitative Metrics
| Metric | TOL | HD |
|---|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value | $112.38 | $93.18 |
| DCF Upside | -20.5% | -72.7% |
| Piotroski F | 4/9 | 4/9 |
| Altman Z | 4.06 | 5.69 |
| Beneish M | -2.39 | -2.42 |
| FCF Yield | 6.93% | 3.32% |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | 0.8x | 1.8x |
| ROIC | 11.9% | 22.8% |
| WACC | 12.2% | 10.6% |
| ROIC – WACC | -0.3pp | 12.3pp |
| Gross Margin | 25.1% | 33.3% |
| Net Margin | 12.3% | 8.6% |
| Rev Growth YoY | 1.1% | 3.2% |
| Sharpe (1Y) | 1.24 | -0.20 |
| Max Drawdown 3Y | -46.0% | — |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 9% | 72% |
TOL Price
HD Price
ETF Exposure
TOL found in:
HD found in:
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Quant metrics computed from financial statements and 1,200+ trading days. Correlation is Pearson coefficient on daily log returns. Not investment advice.
TOL vs HD: Head-to-Head Analysis
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) and The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) represent two companies in the Consumer Cyclical sector. In our quantitative Tale of the Tape scoring, TOL leads 5–3 across nine fundamental and risk metrics including profitability, valuation, capital efficiency, and financial health.
In terms of capital efficiency, TOL generates a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.9% compared to HD's 22.8%. This suggests HD is more effective at deploying capital to generate shareholder returns.
The 252-day rolling correlation between TOL and HD is 0.708, indicating these stocks move closely together, offering limited diversification benefit in a portfolio context.
TOL appears in 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB, while HD appears in 35 ETFs. Investors holding broad-market ETFs may already have indirect exposure to both stocks.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which stock is the better investment, TOL or HD?
Our quantitative analysis compares TOL and HD across nine fundamental dimensions. TOL wins the Tale of the Tape 5–3. However, stock selection depends on your individual risk tolerance, time horizon, and portfolio context. These metrics are computed from SEC filings and market data — they are not investment recommendations.
Are TOL and HD correlated?
The 252-day correlation between TOL and HD is 0.708. They are highly correlated, meaning they tend to move together.
How is the Tale of the Tape scored?
The Tale of the Tape compares both stocks across nine categories: profitability (net margin), valuation (P/E), efficiency (ROIC), health (Piotroski F-Score), safety (Altman Z-Score), growth (revenue YoY), risk (Sharpe ratio), leverage (debt-to-equity), and cash generation (FCF yield). The stock that wins more categories takes the overall score. Lower P/E and lower debt-to-equity count as wins.